Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd654459b14ca4a1a94a604089483b53a671aeeca66a41a3f86649f1bc8fd53d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $130,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 14,170$9,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,160.93 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 42c | 8,982$3,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,210.57 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 53c | 7,733$4,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,609.68 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 41c | 5,298$2,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,172.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf567…d3efbacked Yes | 49c | 3,413$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed No | 58c | 2,595$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.1 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 40c | 1,762$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.03 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 64c | 1,045$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.18 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 47c | 1,006$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.22 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…5e9bbacked Yes | 34c | 960$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed No | 66c | 891.83$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.43 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 45c | 834.24$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 70c | 785.11$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.7 | 121 | 26.4%32 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 64c | 753.49$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.48 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 42c | 748$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.37 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 20c | 733.39$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.76 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 61c | 707.03$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.77 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 53c | 700.77$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.46 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked Yes | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 60c | 653.38$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.95 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…3727backed Yes | 49c | 618$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 63c | 555.14$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.32 | 140 | 31.4%44 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 44c | 542.07$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.51 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…a105backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 44c | 488.63$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.66 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 458.71$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.9 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 445.91$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.53 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 51c | 424.4$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 36c | 421.86$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 67c | 397$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…01c0backed No | 63c | 379.44$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.37 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 29c | 362.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7971…8dd0backed No | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…bad4backed Yes | 58c | 350$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.88 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 336$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.64 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…491cbacked No | 61c | 315$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +69%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 60c | 307.98$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.17 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…ef46backed Yes | 44c | 304$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 50c | 300$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes | 41c | 297.62$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.02 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 53c | 297.14$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 55c | 297.03$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.15 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 31c | 294.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.74 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 53c | 282.24$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.98 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed Yes | 42c | 269.59$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.53 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 56c | 257.04$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 51c | 253$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.97 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…e142backed No | 40c | 252.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 58c | 251.76$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.18 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -18.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 50c | 250$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked No | 50c | 246.44$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 34c | 240.97$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b0…b33abacked No | 63c | 238.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.09 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed No | 46c | 229.82$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 44c | 219.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.67 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ded…fbcdbacked Yes | 59c | 218.65$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes | 49c | 207.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.49 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ed…7ee9backed Yes | 60c | 205.14$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.01 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 41c | 203$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.23 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x333d…e8b7backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…b856backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cef…af02backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed Yes | 78c | 200$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.67 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 39c | 196.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…d6ddbacked Yes | 60c | 192.46$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed Yes | 50c | 187.09$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 49c | 182.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…c1f3backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 36c | 154.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…3679backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 50c | 148.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.18 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 57c | 147.06$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 53c | 144.75$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…a10dbacked No | 45c | 140.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 49c | 137.96$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 70c | 128.12$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked No | 58c | 123.79$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.79 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…4943backed Yes | 51c | 123.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebb9…bfecbacked No | 45c | 119.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 40c | 117.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 115.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03bc…530cbacked No | 56c | 115$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 60c | 113.22$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 45c | 112.93$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef26…6734backed No | 56c | 102$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…d220backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fd…15a0backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x159a…7d5fbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.