TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$125,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed No64c14,170$9,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,160.9393840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed No42c8,982$3,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,210.5713538.5%52 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked No53c7,733$4,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,609.6830738.8%119 W · 188 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+14.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes41c5,298$2,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,172.65837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf567…d3efbacked Yes49c3,413$1,664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,664.2730%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x100a…0919backed No58c2,595$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.12147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5226…8554backed No40c1,762$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.036267.7%42 W · 20 L+13.6wins+0.22per pick46cpaid+51.6%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xedc8…3296backed No64c1,045$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.1825661.3%157 W · 99 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4388…5050backed No47c1,006$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.2217752%92 W · 85 L+20.4wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+33.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5935…5e9bbacked Yes34c960$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb41c…5bd3backed No66c891.83$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.437356.2%41 W · 32 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes45c834.24$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.14714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No70c785.11$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.712126.4%32 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x073e…8416backed No64c753.49$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.486526.2%17 W · 48 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No42c748$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.377548%36 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes20c733.39$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7611212.5%14 W · 98 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No61c707.03$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.775662.5%35 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No53c700.77$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.4627322%60 W · 213 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa019…5ffdbacked Yes61c655.74$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed No60c653.38$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.9529264%187 W · 105 L+47.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xaf33…3727backed Yes49c618$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.81425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No63c555.14$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.3214031.4%44 W · 96 L-0.6wins0.00per pick32cpaid-37.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes44c542.07$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.5113131.3%41 W · 90 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c6…a105backed No50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes44c488.63$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.668353%44 W · 39 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes48c458.71$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.935334%120 W · 233 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No61c445.91$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.531,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4a5d…17adbacked No51c424.4$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.63764.9%24 W · 13 L+6.5wins+0.18per pick47cpaid+58.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes36c421.86$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5213949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes67c397$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.24825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed No63c379.44$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.372680.8%21 W · 5 L+4.5wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+39.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes29c362.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0129436.1%106 W · 188 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7971…8dd0backed No56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.142544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d3…bad4backed Yes58c350$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.882045%9 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No51c336$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.647832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaef0…491cbacked No61c315$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.852766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+69%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed No60c307.98$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.172740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39b2…ef46backed Yes44c304$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed No50c300$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+41.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05ac…6d71backed No64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1081070%7 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes41c297.62$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.02214.8%1 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-68.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb527…3b52backed Yes53c297.14$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.26240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes55c297.03$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1519535.4%69 W · 126 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No31c294.05$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.747556%42 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cea…ffd2backed No53c282.24$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9810667.9%72 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8467…f9e4backed Yes42c269.59$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.53520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No56c257.04$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.225337.7%20 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed No51c253$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.9711133.3%37 W · 74 L-8.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x443d…e142backed No40c252.5$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+31.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes58c251.76$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.1811929.4%35 W · 84 L-18.7wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-47.8%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x907c…23c1backed Yes50c250$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1267838.5%30 W · 48 L-8.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd211…628bbacked No50c246.44$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.223141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes34c240.97$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.1424126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b0…b33abacked No63c238.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.09850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x35a4…7b85backed No46c229.82$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.15364.2%34 W · 19 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No44c219.71$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6739034.4%134 W · 256 L-33.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3ded…fbcdbacked Yes59c218.65$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.871844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes49c207.08$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.494020%8 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-46.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9ed…7ee9backed Yes60c205.14$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.012737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes41c203$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.233842.1%16 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x333d…e8b7backed No62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked No67c200$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663565.7%23 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc4…b856backed No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cef…af02backed Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa821…0bc8backed Yes78c200$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.67850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+87.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed Yes39c196.58$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.671560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9f3…d6ddbacked Yes60c192.46$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc724…3a19backed Yes50c187.09$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.02771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes49c182.61$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.930839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb9…c1f3backed Yes61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes36c154.4$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.56440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1583…bddebacked Yes77c150$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc42…3679backed Yes60c150$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes50c148.49$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.184443.2%19 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed No57c147.06$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.593348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc245…bccbbacked No53c144.75$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.981241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-33.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a52…a10dbacked No45c140.2$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No49c137.96$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.7912348.8%60 W · 63 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bef…3b06backed No70c128.12$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ad4…fa20backed No51c125$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0386…e95ebacked No58c123.79$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.792171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+40.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e58…4943backed Yes51c123.46$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.851266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+82.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xebb9…bfecbacked No45c119.08$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.11633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes40c117.86$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7423323.6%55 W · 178 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No31c115.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.921,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03bc…530cbacked No56c115$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.051118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-69.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No60c113.22$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.15942.4%25 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked No45c112.93$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.791154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…6734backed No56c102$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454938.8%19 W · 30 L-7.1wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-17.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No28c100$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.53026.7%8 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585731.6%18 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1400…d220backed No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+83%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x34fd…15a0backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2e…0873backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.51926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.25per pick51cpaid-59%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x159a…7d5fbacked No46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa598…2ff3backed No63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.