Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x508c47e0f243d168fb9fed49a8ea497dd2f5951b0af2d7c1c524eea5b5b3b041
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,146
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,146 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 57c | 10,617$6,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,525.18 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 50c | 6,442$3,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,239.25 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 6,072$4,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.08 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 50c | 4,608$2,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,318.84 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 43c | 4,290$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,861.53 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf567…d3efbacked Yes | 52c | 4,166$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,179.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Yes | 17c | 2,337$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.77 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 3c | 2,245$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 21c | 2,008$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.02 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 26c | 1,787$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.28 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,151$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed Yes | 41c | 1,041$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.81 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 51c | 1,016$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.16 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 47c | 962.82$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.9 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…02aabacked Yes | 9c | 950.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 55c | 932.87$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…8554backed No | 43c | 878.48$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.16 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +13.6wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 50c | 833$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.71 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 4c | 619.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 559.16$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.56 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 549.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 97 | 9.3%9 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 40c | 488.18$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.5 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 469.47$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.98 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2f…b23ebacked Yes | 59c | 424.27$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 60c | 402.05$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.07 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 66c | 364$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.98 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 356.97$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.15 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 21c | 326.49$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.07 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes | 6c | 300.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 112 | 12.5%14 W · 98 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66cf…2343backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked No | 34c | 295.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…4943backed No | 43c | 295.15$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 61c | 279.25$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.34 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed Yes | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 52c | 210.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…dc6fbacked Yes | 20c | 210$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked Yes | 41c | 202.61$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 34cpaid | +159.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…a9f6backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…0fe6backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…ea35backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…3651backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 53c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2178…aab5backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b3…a039backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 45c | 195$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.25 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 66c | 188.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 181.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.9 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 64c | 173.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.56 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 56c | 164.39$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 162.69$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ded…fbcdbacked Yes | 32c | 162.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 53c | 160$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…7f3abacked Yes | 68c | 147.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0a…6b52backed Yes | 50c | 132$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed No | 57c | 120$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 44cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 120$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…b7d6backed Yes | 59c | 120$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked No | 74c | 110$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 45c | 109.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed Yes | 76c | 107.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8174…be40backed Yes | 80c | 104.88$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed Yes | 57c | 103.68$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed No | 54c | 102.09$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…5ffdbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…77c1backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x859e…894fbacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…3a19backed No | 58c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +44%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 74c | 81.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked No | 43c | 80.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 54c | 77.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed Yes | 63c | 76.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 37c | 74.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646d…0d58backed Yes | 21c | 74.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 16c | 72.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed No | 55c | 72.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x618f…1accbacked Yes | 59c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…f399backed Yes | 64c | 64.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 57c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed No | 32c | 59.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +170.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 26c | 56.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 76c | 52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed Yes | 51c | 51.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…0d3ebacked No | 45c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…b327backed No | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…0fd3backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf5…e344backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…8b0fbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb866…f370backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…cfa1backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…21b9backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…a301backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +13.2wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.