Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3067590c13df7d3cb4aa906df2e653ba52db2ae3af34df005930852a7248698d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Yes | 4c | 3,057$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 25c | 1,788$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.15 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes | 28c | 1,769$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 21c | 1,185$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.49 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 19c | 772.87$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.77 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 721.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 29c | 709.78$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.71 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 65c | 680$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 663.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 80c | 600$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 593.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 555.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234f…0d2bbacked Yes | 5c | 550$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed No | 80c | 418.12$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.09 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 13c | 332.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 71c | 317.47$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.17 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2178…aab5backed Yes | 4c | 293.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed Yes | 27c | 250$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b8…037fbacked Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Yes | 23c | 208.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.07 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed No | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 14c | 199.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 20c | 184.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…4094backed No | 78c | 152.48$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 26c | 130.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 30c | 125$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 22c | 105$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02d…bcffbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…c62ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f90…e17fbacked Yes | 21c | 86.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed Yes | 23c | 60.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 60.46$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…3f16backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…8b0fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…5e45backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cec…ff6ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…a8c1backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…a3c9backed No | 79c | 36.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 35.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…ff8bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.