Commodities · resolved market
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc0a820a19e30d5e6d79d95431d3f3cc4c1f14b1ce6692dfbc733d586e8c2304
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 2,428$1,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.3 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…895ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,020$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 55c | 1,184$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.66 | 294 | 36.1%106 W · 188 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 55c | 921.14$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.13 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | +20.4wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Yes | 31c | 836.66$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.68 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed No | 39c | 830$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c12…9a6bbacked Yes | 26c | 631.82$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed No | 40c | 524.97$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.48 | 256 | 61.3%157 W · 99 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 11c | 465.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 48c | 400$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed No | 39c | 341.07$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.94 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked No | 76c | 328.16$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.08 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…3b52backed Yes | 16c | 289.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…8712backed No | 55c | 270.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…f635backed Yes | 27c | 246.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…3d7fbacked Yes | 19c | 218.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 198.32$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.41 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 49c | 195$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 194$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 28c | 194$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Yes | 32c | 191$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +15.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 17c | 189.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 20c | 177.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 10c | 175$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd211…628bbacked No | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 34c | 149.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 140.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked Yes | 47c | 115$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 27c | 113.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd5…ce89backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38f…67adbacked Yes | 23c | 85.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes | 18c | 80.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 76.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 111 | 33.3%37 W · 74 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 43c | 69.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 66c | 67.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc8…3546backed Yes | 48c | 56.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f0…78babacked Yes | 47c | 55.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed No | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed Yes | 31c | 51.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 35c | 50.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -59%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9689backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…beaabacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88d5…4979backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…0f83backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 77c | 41.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc318…d82abacked Yes | 50c | 40.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 43c | 37.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 56c | 30.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 50c | 20.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June?this page
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.00 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.80 in June?No won
- Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $3.00 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.