Movies · resolved market
Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x344d4601afab7444f079a1d68ca995d7c736340f9d5a475d02853262bb0405c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 54c | 4,825$2,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.18 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 35c | 4,345$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,527.37 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 30c | 2,877$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 70c | 2,600$1,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 72c | 1,481$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.27 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 5c | 1,399$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 57c | 1,235$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.91 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 70c | 1,203$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 26c | 616.16$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.46 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 63c | 612$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.44 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 33c | 600.56$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.36 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 16c | 585.09$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.97 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 37c | 537.65$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.72 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 50c | 536.5$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.95 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed No | 69c | 449$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.81 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 43c | 401.14$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.14 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed Yes | 31c | 378$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 37c | 362.54$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.43 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 38c | 225.7$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.58 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 34c | 210.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.52 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 65c | 200$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 31c | 191.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.47 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 9c | 184.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 46c | 172.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 69c | 116.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 115.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 73c | 112.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x939b…afdebacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 21c | 93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…5751backed Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 65c | 75.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 36c | 65.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 59.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed No | 57c | 52.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…d99abacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…cd66backed Yes | 64c | 47.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 30c | 44.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…2bc5backed No | 65c | 40.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 28c | 37.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…2185backed No | 65c | 35.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc9…0555backed No | 62c | 33.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04e9…6e65backed Yes | 39c | 29.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…7712backed No | 62c | 23.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2042…2f99backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked No | 54c | 18.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17.5m?this page
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 17.5m and 20m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22.5m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 22.5m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.