Movies · resolved market
Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 17.5m and 20m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96c6c943cea6ac34cc52b7d873f1418be41e5a0b71683af173c9ce539cef1d22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,976
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,976 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 3c | 3,045$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.03 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 10c | 2,219$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.14 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,127$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.31 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 4c | 1,223$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 15c | 921.55$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.31 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 2c | 833.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71c…d0a8backed Yes | 17c | 679$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 3c | 670.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 12c | 592.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.26 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 29c | 577.84$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.73 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 10c | 576.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.01 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 571.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 10c | 517.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb8…eea6backed Yes | 17c | 320$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 268.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 263.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 7c | 224.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 14c | 208.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 17c | 195$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 17c | 185$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 131$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4f…2cffbacked Yes | 14c | 118.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 38.24$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 77cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 76c | 28.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 17.5m and 20m?this page
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17.5m?Yes won
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22.5m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 22.5m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.