Movies · resolved market
Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6044f479c125a3d5d75dfee51ae8d48f7b7658a71dad8dfb65beac81c4396c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 45c | 4,637$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,071.02 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 2,314$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.9 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 57c | 1,653$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.39 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 52c | 1,295$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.45 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 68c | 1,294$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.59 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 44c | 949.84$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.73 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 45c | 892.39$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.5 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 38c | 870.51$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.78 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 36c | 802.46$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.63 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 52c | 664.12$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.06 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes | 50c | 628.3$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.08 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 47c | 604.04$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.89 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…62fcbacked No | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 533$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 4c | 533$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 521.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 6c | 505.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 47c | 414.44$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.74 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked Yes | 56c | 400$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 71c | 400$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 20c | 351.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.28 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c02…7555backed Yes | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 48c | 315$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.39per pick | 49cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked Yes | 4c | 310$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 49c | 300$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 43c | 300$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 288.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6414backed Yes | 5c | 283.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 6c | 272.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 42c | 271.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.4 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 52c | 267$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed Yes | 47c | 252.53$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked No | 46c | 242.71$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 49c | 229$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked No | 48c | 209$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 52c | 206$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.12 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…bd2ebacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed No | 48c | 197$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 46c | 190$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…5499backed Yes | 54c | 165.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…4942backed Yes | 52c | 163$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 43c | 141$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 131$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 137 | 35%48 W · 89 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 48c | 124$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 115$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 70c | 108.34$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.37 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 52c | 107.32$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked Yes | 57c | 84.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 53c | 80.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 53c | 73.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 53c | 66.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 48.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed Yes | 37c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…cba6backed Yes | 49c | 36.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…f7c0backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…b296backed Yes | 58c | 34.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.7wins | -0.27per pick | 57cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b5b2backed No | 69c | 24.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 53c | 20.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?this page
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 17.5m?Yes won
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 17.5m and 20m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be between 20m and 22.5m?No won
- Will "GOAT" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 22.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.