Movies · resolved market
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b430559ce6920aeec804ba70d5f62c65ccc59526e31830f8388522715292d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 6c | 8,989$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.72 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 79c | 6,291$4,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.69 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 37c | 3,880$1,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,462.3 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 23c | 2,649$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.92 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 8c | 2,643$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4acf…106cbacked No | 53c | 1,162$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 74c | 1,150$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.75 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 8c | 953.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 40c | 885.07$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.64 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -7.5wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed No | 3c | 791.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 16c | 759.91$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 6c | 730$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 17c | 678.58$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 595.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 504.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 22c | 437.46$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 9c | 423$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 15c | 383.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 26c | 343.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 37c | 300$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -87%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 7c | 299.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed No | 26c | 293.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.35 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 7c | 262.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 252$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed No | 34c | 224.29$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4267…3e8ebacked No | 36c | 215.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 8c | 215$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 21c | 186.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x713c…41bbbacked No | 27c | 175.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 14c | 160$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 15c | 155.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 26c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 37c | 139$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 126.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.02 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 35c | 120.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb0…bd65backed No | 11c | 118.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc5…52abbacked Yes | 74c | 117.46$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…5274backed No | 23c | 113.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 38c | 92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 38c | 88.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 46c | 86.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 20c | 86.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 76c | 85.05$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 66c | 81.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 33c | 80.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 28c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…ab1cbacked No | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 25c | 69.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked No | 23c | 63.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Yes | 74c | 63$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa598…2ff3backed No | 26c | 56.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…09d5backed No | 22c | 54.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…a539backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…20a4backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…8c5bbacked No | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…419cbacked No | 25c | 42.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 76c | 34.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Yes | 74c | 21.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?this page
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?No won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?No won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.