Movies · resolved market
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15f58cfe7c2a3f4c431e963213c7ef0b06e765d4ce6aa47c20e624ceb5e6e8c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 1c | 2,854$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed No | 50c | 1,152$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.4 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 50c | 1,135$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.08 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 3c | 600.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 508.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 435$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4af5…0048backed Yes | 61c | 284.01$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked No | 56c | 254.01$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.04 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked Yes | 49c | 163$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 137$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.68 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 101.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…9d34backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…b0b0backed Yes | 25c | 86.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 55.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…b692backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m?this page
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?No won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?No won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.