Movies · resolved market
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc042517a723efb01fee92402df33b51dbfe8956e81c55538fce6f6a821eb1af7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 3c | 10,525$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.89 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 8c | 5,086$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.1 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…2d20backed Yes | 11c | 4,050$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 5c | 3,745$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf77…7d01backed Yes | 1c | 2,872$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,480$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 5c | 2,284$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.49 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.65 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 20c | 1,090$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.88 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Yes | 20c | 856.71$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 11c | 854.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 25c | 621.03$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1214…ebecbacked Yes | 4c | 539.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 20c | 467.15$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.31 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 5c | 435.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 406.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe187…6468backed Yes | 6c | 405.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 3c | 400.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 14c | 328.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 246$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x382b…f334backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 197$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 7c | 179.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked Yes | 19c | 164.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd56…0b8dbacked Yes | 9c | 163.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x959e…0315backed No | 80c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 26c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 78c | 119.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked Yes | 19c | 107.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 86.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…ac5cbacked Yes | 25c | 60.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Yes | 26c | 52.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd799…8f86backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…fb0bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…20a4backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 45cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Yes | 27c | 42.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked No | 68c | 21.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?this page
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m?No won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 31m?No won
- Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.