TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,451

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,390 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes52c2,079$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.7342036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes36c1,761$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.914,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes53c1,149$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.581,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No46c498.56$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.273,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed No46c426.73$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.51,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No48c414$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.282,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf421…efcebacked Yes25c379.63$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7442820.1%86 W · 342 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No47c375.08$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.792,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No48c332.99$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.167443.2%32 W · 42 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c325$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.745,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes61c321.73$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3622740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No40c319.74$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.928,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c286.08$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.9212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed No48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.520347.8%97 W · 106 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes56c231$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3689557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No58c200.07$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.734,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes62c193.78$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.31,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed No54c190.78$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3225549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No55c187.58$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.494,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes49c177.49$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes57c173.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7946743.7%204 W · 263 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No38c167.74$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.671,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No39c167.19$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.879,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4a…f61bbacked No43c156.29$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0954547.7%260 W · 285 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes46c136.91$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.68,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes59c134.73$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.311,19657.9%693 W · 503 L+47.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes56c126.94$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.11,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x697a…4024backed No40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.25825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No38c120$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.934,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed Yes59c118.56$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010044%44 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes36c115.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.516,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes60c112.61$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.485,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No42c111.92$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.371,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes49c106.32$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9121451.9%111 W · 103 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x116a…a2f2backed Yes63c103.04$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653043.3%13 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No39c102.23$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.724,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes20c101.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.852,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581,12651.2%577 W · 549 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5897152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5768335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No44c93.9$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.193,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f2…adcabacked No45c88.89$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8911163.1%70 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1917…138bbacked No48c88.76$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2833746.9%158 W · 179 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes60c82.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5064446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff18…a5fbbacked Yes53c81.13$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437835.9%28 W · 50 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-30.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes61c80$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.83,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed Yes56c79.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.19728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes53c78.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.651,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No41c75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2537355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e28…4983backed No40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4533654.2%182 W · 154 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No41c75$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.251,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No46c71.16$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.494,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x35cc…58b7backed Yes62c66.1$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-73.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes46c63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2826344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd93e…7434backed No40c62.71$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4613337.6%50 W · 83 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed No41c61$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8721352.1%111 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes63c60.95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.41,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes56c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.935137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1790…6fd2backed Yes59c60$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.44334.9%15 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.63,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes55c60$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes63c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.881855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c59.98$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5380050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c0…53d5backed Yes55c57.45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.67847.4%37 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30d…fe15backed Yes63c56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-71.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x515f…a606backed No42c55$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.917553.1%93 W · 82 L-8.3wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes56c54.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7882742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes56c54.94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.982,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No78c52.63$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.841,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4f…e321backed No48c52.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.31060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed Yes61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.546457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1381848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2685049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf30a…3583backed Yes62c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3116936.1%61 W · 108 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2315545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.143,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x666d…340bbacked Yes56c49.68$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.833953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c8…4ccabacked No44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.453240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes55c44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.249750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No51c43.83$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4871649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No39c42.62$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2649551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed No38c41.9$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1155954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes48c41.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.999,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes60c37.39$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5866758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No53c36$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9299571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef49…d27bbacked Yes60c35.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0121651.9%112 W · 104 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes61c32.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.815,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes65c31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1578663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf92…150fbacked Yes62c30.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0216440.2%66 W · 98 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.32,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93a6…b1c2backed Yes58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410547.6%50 W · 55 L-0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.792,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No45c27.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.886,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes56c26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.474,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa957…7638backed Yes71c26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.444555.6%25 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa922…9a52backed Yes77c25.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207452.7%39 W · 35 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fba…006dbacked No49c25.34$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.923548.6%17 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.