Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc51fd425d566ca6c79e7b1565459173226b0d0d5bdf084ce4846324806bc15c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,011
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 56c | 1,041$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.43 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 415.69$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 378.27$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.93 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 296.38$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 284.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 79c | 270.71$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.36 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 57c | 254.58$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.62 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 20c | 250$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.07 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 29c | 228.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.05 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 21c | 225.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.88 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 68c | 223.37$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 79c | 207.43$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.53 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 16c | 205.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.34 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 54c | 201.07$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 200.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 24c | 191$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 189.58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.58 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 186.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 16c | 172.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 169.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.73 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 79c | 150$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 34c | 148.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d2…9145backed Yes | 16c | 144.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 85 | 9.4%8 W · 77 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 141.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 135.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.43 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 131$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 23c | 130.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.55 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 19c | 130$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.35 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 97.96$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.22 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.81 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 20c | 83.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 74.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 19c | 73.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.72 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 43c | 66.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 18c | 59.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 57.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 19c | 52.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 52.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 169 | 36.1%61 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 58c | 49.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 27c | 43.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 77c | 40.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 40c | 37.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cb…6882backed No | 49c | 34.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 56c | 33.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb998…a489backed Yes | 72c | 30.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 45c | 24.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 66c | 23.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 78c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 68c | 15.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c7…284bbacked Yes | 69c | 15.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…0f9fbacked Yes | 72c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a2…b8fabacked No | 74c | 13.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.