TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$707,488
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$955,440

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $707,488 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x707b…416abacked Yes7c5,344$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.741030%3 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03a6…97e6backed Yes1c4,422$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ee…68edbacked Yes2c4,377$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes8c4,375$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes2c4,365$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6833313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69c9…0ddcbacked Yes3c4,315$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52cf…b13abacked Yes2c4,202$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca50…f5e2backed Yes2c4,089$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x965d…32b3backed Yes1c2,787$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1c1…d791backed Yes1c2,282$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52b…cc4dbacked Yes1c2,282$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f14…2898backed Yes1c2,220$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf506…3bb6backed Yes3c2,166$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc751…4121backed Yes1c2,155$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x211c…5d77backed Yes2c2,154$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec5d…f880backed Yes2c2,145$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…d1e2backed Yes2c2,145$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8569…3654backed Yes1c2,082$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4496…f495backed Yes1c2,082$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes8c2,046$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d3…658cbacked Yes3c2,010$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,919$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.29140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc60…02fcbacked Yes2c1,877$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…bab8backed Yes2c1,864$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes2c1,658$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.683912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaace…24c9backed Yes1c1,651$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54ca…48f9backed Yes7c1,600$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c1,597$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.09787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7171…7af9backed Yes2c1,509$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6860%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c6e…de7fbacked Yes3c1,500$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbd…ce61backed Yes2c1,386$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes2c1,341$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b13…5957backed Yes8c1,291$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7589…9413backed Yes1c1,259$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ec…7949backed Yes1c1,257$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a6…63f5backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes3c1,224$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.728015%12 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-54.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f45…d8c8backed Yes2c1,209$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5333…22e1backed Yes1c1,170$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x879b…e277backed Yes2c1,157$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c5…0414backed Yes1c1,153$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e05…7775backed Yes1c1,153$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdd2…3effbacked Yes3c1,144$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…cd8ebacked Yes2c1,125$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5386…c6fcbacked Yes1c1,112$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc50…3755backed Yes3c1,104$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa417…d778backed Yes3c1,095$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0478…d6b5backed Yes2c1,080$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3524…9e96backed Yes1c1,058$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c1,041$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5765.3%4 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d6…bd20backed Yes1c1,037$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9847…a488backed Yes2c1,028$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe502…56b7backed Yes2c1,017$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5114…c160backed Yes1c1,004$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa060…5163backed Yes2c1,003$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd079…56acbacked Yes7c1,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a8…a472backed Yes2c992$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5526…2336backed Yes3c985$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes2c932.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x979e…1585backed Yes2c904$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd09…0d4bbacked Yes2c895$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes3c872.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.083013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa16f…7fa1backed Yes2c851.52$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes6c829.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5155618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c824.41$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.461343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53a8…6692backed Yes2c798$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes6c789.07$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.134126.8%11 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c735.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.45414.9%2 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19dd…8f24backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c60…27f5backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x547e…9ea0backed Yes3c711$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed Yes6c604.54$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.47650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7467…a98ebacked Yes3c589$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6be…4432backed Yes3c563$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6006…c5b5backed Yes3c563$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78b4…c109backed Yes2c556$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0de…5872backed Yes2c556$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bf5…610ebacked Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x179e…13febacked Yes2c545$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cde…af21backed Yes3c544.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e7…995bbacked Yes3c542$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d12…1ca6backed Yes3c536$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccec…dc74backed Yes3c534$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f9e…557bbacked Yes2c532.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff9d…d063backed Yes3c528$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf9a…a3cabacked Yes3c528$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f58…cd33backed Yes3c526$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3621…dcb3backed Yes2c520$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-37.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbffa…1d59backed Yes3c489.68$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7140…bb5fbacked Yes2c477$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf779…d36fbacked Yes4c469.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes3c466.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3943.2%3 W · 91 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes4c421.22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56728.3%6 W · 66 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff31…5166backed Yes3c401.16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick25cpaid+129.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c389.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.661,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes4c357.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.12714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-76%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a15…7036backed Yes7c357.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes6c338.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.271741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick35cpaid-39.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.