AI · resolved market
Will Grok win the okbet trading competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6b251907e533ded7cebc490efe56effabeaa73f2654c7c7821cc98cb20c0367
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24d5…d94fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,742$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,737$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.49 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 29c | 1,379$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.57 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 20c | 897$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.83 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 13c | 873$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 13c | 822.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 3c | 564.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 559.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 14c | 518.44$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.73 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 5c | 507.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ecf7backed Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 69c | 475.71$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.84 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes | 9c | 453.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 29c | 421$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.31 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 15c | 398.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.37 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 7c | 370.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b7…79c5backed Yes | 12c | 364$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 337.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x680e…71f8backed Yes | 5c | 301.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb227…e76cbacked Yes | 7c | 268.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 266.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 23c | 254.31$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 8c | 245$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 17c | 229.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.4 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…a7fcbacked Yes | 32c | 205.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…9a45backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 193.29$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 25c | 188.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 79c | 170$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 26c | 169$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 34c | 168.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 16c | 164.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 32c | 164$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked No | 70c | 149.17$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 66c | 139.6$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…5126backed Yes | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 127.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 23c | 110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…9bccbacked Yes | 13c | 102.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…709dbacked Yes | 14c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 24c | 93.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 86.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…c7a7backed Yes | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…06f2backed No | 69c | 73.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc458…c1d2backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 29c | 65.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206f…4366backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Yes | 35c | 59.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 67c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe4…5504backed Yes | 32c | 57.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 72c | 56.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 23c | 56.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…7005backed Yes | 23c | 52.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…eef0backed Yes | 34c | 50.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…b81bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…3e66backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Yes | 23c | 49.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…e9d5backed No | 67c | 45.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 27c | 40.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 70c | 36.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…56b0backed No | 67c | 31.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 80c | 12.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grok win the okbet trading competition?this page
- Will Claude win the okbet trading competition?No won
- Will DeepSeek win the okbet trading competition?No won
- Will GPT win the okbet trading competition?Yes won
- Will Gemini win the okbet trading competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.