AI · resolved market
Will Gemini win the okbet trading competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x683db949350fceca463fcce923521c289fcc2df929331e0b88a95dc1144a38df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24d5…d94fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,275$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 2,600$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,043$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 1c | 1,705$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 2c | 1,024$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,016$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 1c | 898$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 4c | 825.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 2c | 610.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ed…ecf7backed Yes | 5c | 599.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 2c | 540.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 510.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked Yes | 12c | 308$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 9c | 287.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 12c | 262$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…891fbacked Yes | 13c | 261$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Yes | 13c | 253$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…ac4bbacked Yes | 26c | 244.66$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf666…8842backed Yes | 12c | 226$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 7c | 225.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…8085backed Yes | 12c | 210$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 41cpaid | +62%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4c…be9fbacked Yes | 12c | 202$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…8c30backed Yes | 12c | 190$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 12c | 187$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 12c | 179$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 171$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed Yes | 12c | 169$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5558backed Yes | 12c | 167$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 7c | 159.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed Yes | 13c | 152$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…f991backed Yes | 12c | 118$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…a7fcbacked No | 79c | 105.15$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 12c | 105$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 13c | 104$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…f3dcbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked No | 75c | 99.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 92.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…415ebacked Yes | 13c | 92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed Yes | 12c | 85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…b81bbacked Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…0b02backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gemini win the okbet trading competition?this page
- Will Claude win the okbet trading competition?No won
- Will DeepSeek win the okbet trading competition?No won
- Will GPT win the okbet trading competition?Yes won
- Will Grok win the okbet trading competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.