AI · resolved market
Will GPT win the okbet trading competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f871ecbc92acce7128e68bd795a247e581a451e724ee6a1af65b4758b98b16a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,899
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,899 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24d5…d94fbacked No | 2c | 5,502$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 59c | 2,353$1,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.08 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 57c | 1,449$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.93 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 74c | 1,277$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.16 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 4c | 1,063$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 21c | 838.27$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.74 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 791.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 743.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…06f2backed Yes | 13c | 483.12$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 5c | 431.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.83 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 17c | 403.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 54c | 401.5$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.01 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 13c | 366.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 79c | 348$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.92 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 9c | 291.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.14 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 19c | 256.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…459fbacked Yes | 30c | 245$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 19c | 236.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.96 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 6c | 233$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.97 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed No | 6c | 196.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 21c | 196$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.84 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 7c | 183.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 79c | 175$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11b…f663backed No | 65c | 165.23$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.19 | 31 | 87.1%27 W · 4 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20b4…1a93backed Yes | 62c | 158$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 31c | 156.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.14 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 148.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.68 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2a…7243backed No | 9c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 72c | 133.19$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…9e3dbacked No | 16c | 129.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed No | 11c | 129.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed Yes | 10c | 108$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 104.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.66 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked No | 16c | 100.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes | 69c | 98.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes | 15c | 94.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 27c | 94.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194a…7005backed Yes | 56c | 92.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 31c | 82.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed No | 73c | 80.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +304.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed No | 79c | 78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 61cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 21c | 78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 69c | 74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 54c | 47.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc1…5216backed No | 72c | 43.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…9324backed Yes | 32c | 41.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Yes | 34c | 33.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +51%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50a3…0a78backed Yes | 37c | 29.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa3…c3ddbacked No | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19ba…0b29backed Yes | 54c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will GPT win the okbet trading competition?this page
- Will Claude win the okbet trading competition?No won
- Will DeepSeek win the okbet trading competition?No won
- Will Gemini win the okbet trading competition?No won
- Will Grok win the okbet trading competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.