AI · resolved market
Will Claude win the okbet trading competition?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92d9822e00dd179e7b833ebc949964cf4da8ec9c0b43f29cba336812a1fdc445
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 26c | 2,673$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.94 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…d94fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,668$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,668$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 58c | 1,437$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.05 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 29c | 1,383$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.8 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…459fbacked Yes | 48c | 861.99$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 773.13$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.78 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 56c | 575.97$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.92 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c38…a15abacked Yes | 9c | 560.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 33c | 537.54$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 52c | 525.86$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.69 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 65c | 488.7$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 55c | 465.47$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.37 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 70c | 463.36$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.26 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 21c | 417.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.45 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 37c | 403.26$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.56 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 53c | 364.05$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.47 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…1ce7backed Yes | 56c | 357$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 356.88$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.86 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Yes | 26c | 327$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.37 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 300$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 64c | 266.11$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…19c6backed No | 58c | 264$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968c…46cfbacked Yes | 40c | 262.24$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 63c | 260.91$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.06 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1626backed No | 79c | 220.34$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 58c | 212.9$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 19c | 206.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.21 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…4d9dbacked Yes | 51c | 205.45$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 71c | 203$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 42c | 199.8$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…5126backed Yes | 33c | 197.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 189.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.13 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 35c | 188.87$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed No | 80c | 163$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +94.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35ca…497bbacked Yes | 17c | 156$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed No | 58c | 147.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 16c | 147$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd214…5fcdbacked Yes | 20c | 138$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 134.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 60c | 129.85$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.03 | 139 | 71.9%100 W · 39 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…2c52backed Yes | 16c | 128$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed Yes | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda76…edf5backed Yes | 36c | 112.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 50c | 106.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0c…766abacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b1…f58fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe756…392bbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 71c | 96.46$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 15c | 96.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.91 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed Yes | 31c | 95.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…a145backed Yes | 61c | 90.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…a7fcbacked No | 67c | 87.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 26c | 77.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 20c | 70.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91f…06f2backed No | 63c | 68.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 22c | 66.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked Yes | 72c | 65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 37c | 65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes | 25c | 60.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4151…94c1backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf418…3beebacked No | 72c | 57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x808f…87b2backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cc…8961backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 35c | 47.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 47.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…76c9backed No | 65c | 42.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…781dbacked Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72c6…46e8backed Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9282…9324backed Yes | 36c | 34.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6819…fb70backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…68c6backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude win the okbet trading competition?this page
- Will DeepSeek win the okbet trading competition?No won
- Will GPT win the okbet trading competition?Yes won
- Will Gemini win the okbet trading competition?No won
- Will Grok win the okbet trading competition?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.