Middle East · resolved market
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3eecaa0d63490ef92be05cf30bedd7983a279fc6aba328164c7f332c6fdec03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,344
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8204…56eabacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.03 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,922$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.96 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…0d88backed Yes | 23c | 4,334$988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 77c | 4,000$3,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 3,499$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.2 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…738fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,263$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.95 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 6c | 1,931$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 17c | 1,515$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.21 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,398$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.75 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 12c | 1,386$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.94 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,327$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 6c | 1,313$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 769$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 5c | 663.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 124 | 5.6%7 W · 117 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…7fc8backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 14c | 499.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc644…1546backed Yes | 11c | 487.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7017…a205backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…d83fbacked Yes | 13c | 444.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…4933backed Yes | 20c | 353.17$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cd…c7b7backed Yes | 15c | 327.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 320.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 17c | 304.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5864…76b9backed Yes | 10c | 300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed Yes | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed Yes | 12c | 269.15$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47a8…ea4dbacked Yes | 7c | 247.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 19c | 185.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f19…aafebacked Yes | 18c | 163.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…a899backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 16c | 106$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 76c | 105.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3c…fc9dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1db9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…9635backed Yes | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 94.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 17c | 92.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 124 | 41.1%51 W · 73 L | -14.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…649dbacked Yes | 16c | 88.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes | 14c | 87.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b44…52d8backed No | 78c | 84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…4dc6backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…735abacked Yes | 16c | 77.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 65.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 115 | 61.7%71 W · 44 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 77c | 43.66$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 52c | 42.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +9.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…57afbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 66c | 22.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?this page
- Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.