Middle East · resolved market
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb4e97d74c37863f09461162bc78c78cc274e82152e208bda3e97bc4c5aefcce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $616,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $576,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $616,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 575 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76ef…6559backed Yes | 49c | 26,443$12,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,943.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +693.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0c…fbb7backed No | 29c | 18,387$5,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,011.84 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 15c | 16,677$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.12 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…2b23backed Yes | 17c | 11,837$2,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.88 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Yes | 38c | 9,137$3,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,445.42 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 45cpaid | +235.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 13c | 8,885$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.25 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,330$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.52 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 5c | 7,784$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 5c | 7,330$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.14 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…9a74backed Yes | 4c | 6,388$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…d02bbacked Yes | 5c | 6,262$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…2673backed No | 44c | 5,630$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,180.46 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +5.9wins | +0.37per pick | 32cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked No | 76c | 5,504$4,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.45 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 80c | 5,252$4,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,176.35 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked No | 24c | 5,139$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,917.13 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fa…78b8backed No | 64c | 5,124$3,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,828.65 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 4,847$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 24c | 4,833$1,171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,171.23 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d73…f7b8backed Yes | 3c | 4,510$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 4,351$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.96 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 15c | 4,262$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,643.45 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…7d96backed Yes | 22c | 4,143$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.27 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 16c | 4,013$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.42 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 20c | 4,000$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.99 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 74c | 4,000$2,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.03 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +12.7wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb2…d2c3backed Yes | 56c | 3,966$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,237.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed No | 69c | 3,778$2,606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.79 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 13c | 3,701$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.53 | 129 | 18.6%24 W · 105 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabd4…4d3abacked Yes | 5c | 3,312$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 26c | 3,250$838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.71 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 74c | 3,066$2,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,253.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -5.2wins | -0.43per pick | 52cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…a91dbacked Yes | 23c | 3,007$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.23 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 33c | 3,000$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.69 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…1526backed Yes | 4c | 2,989$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…6e7bbacked No | 57c | 2,988$1,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,287.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 54c | 2,831$1,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.28 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc825…0d88backed Yes | 27c | 2,405$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked Yes | 76c | 2,300$1,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,758.07 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes | 76c | 2,263$1,729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.21 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 47c | 2,225$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.06 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed No | 25c | 2,222$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.5 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…d03fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,220$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 23c | 2,191$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,686.1 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 3c | 2,116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 25c | 2,068$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.58 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,700 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56bf…5c19backed Yes | 7c | 1,959$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,949$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420f…a31ebacked No | 36c | 1,948$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.13 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…45dcbacked No | 67c | 1,909$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…e97bbacked No | 71c | 1,908$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked No | 37c | 1,861$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.68 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 1,810$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.14 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 29c | 1,797$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.34 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Yes | 23c | 1,768$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e9…57bfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,732$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…f672backed Yes | 77c | 1,731$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,713$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.73 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…a640backed Yes | 20c | 1,602$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +354%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,600$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.05 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…a0ebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,588$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6e…6cedbacked Yes | 4c | 1,426$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 31c | 1,416$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.35 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 40c | 1,403$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.22 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 1,378$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.91 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…c3e8backed Yes | 12c | 1,337$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa636…3a5abacked Yes | 7c | 1,336$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,301$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +131%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Yes | 8c | 1,287$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 78c | 1,286$1,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.43 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c56…6316backed Yes | 4c | 1,258$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87f…7822backed Yes | 19c | 1,241$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe132…ca8dbacked No | 46c | 1,226$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…61e5backed Yes | 36c | 1,206$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 11c | 1,189$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.52 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,146$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 20c | 1,141$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.1 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5c…25c3backed No | 55c | 1,138$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9a…4933backed Yes | 36c | 1,129$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,098$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd166…666ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,091$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed No | 41c | 1,072$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.61 | 211 | 60.7%128 W · 83 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Yes | 40c | 1,058$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.94 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 77c | 1,020$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 14c | 1,016$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 79c | 1,010$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.44 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…5957backed Yes | 29c | 1,009$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.86 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 5c | 993.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6388backed No | 67c | 991.83$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.79 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 19c | 953.56$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.22 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…7f7cbacked Yes | 13c | 939.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…d806backed Yes | 6c | 926.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed Yes | 54c | 917.32$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.14 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…a6aabacked Yes | 3c | 895.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc63…427abacked Yes | 10c | 893.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 10c | 850.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.23 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd213…d210backed Yes | 10c | 847.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 2c | 834$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$817.32 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | +11.5wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 15c | 830$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed Yes | 13c | 823.94$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.29 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?this page
- Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.