TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$28,435
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$32,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,435 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x508d…9c58backed No0c10,051$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.561637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc273…51eabacked No2c1,041$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.992030%6 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c401.4$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.2117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes39c389.88$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.771,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc0b…961fbacked No4c379.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.059436.2%34 W · 60 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0a…ccdcbacked No57c312.38$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.22133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No21c300.9$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8774926.7%200 W · 549 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes31c300.76$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.111,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes51c286.51$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.726,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No62c273.52$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.7962555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes68c270.8$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.9386420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes38c222.47$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2145619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No60c176.64$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0888973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes36c161.26$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.023,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e9…bdacbacked No53c159.99$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.211731.6%37 W · 80 L-19.1wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes75c156.87$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.939877.6%76 W · 22 L+16.3wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+38.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes36c156.1$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.5865043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No29c151.29$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.622,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3d7…3377backed No63c149.98$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.492040%8 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bbe…85a3backed No62c135.36$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.92825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes40c131.37$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.041,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x052e…ade1backed Yes37c127.39$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6228329.3%83 W · 200 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2af7…570dbacked Yes79c127.24$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.682462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d6…e027backed No64c123.2$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.278042.5%34 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes38c116.15$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.129,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes39c108.57$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7663538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed Yes40c108.05$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.41728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No41c106.1$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes38c100.2$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.635,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2002…996bbacked Yes78c93.84$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.116578.5%51 W · 14 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+22.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2df9…effbbacked No65c88.55$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3211659.5%69 W · 47 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bbb…1928backed No62c79.25$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.142737%10 W · 17 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-44.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3d4d…7fdbbacked Yes77c71.88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.215735.1%20 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes40c70.5$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3424442.6%104 W · 140 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda18…4282backed Yes39c69.41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.342846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes43c66.48$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2140935%143 W · 266 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5605…5962backed No52c66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x017c…00c3backed Yes41c65.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6825042.4%106 W · 144 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes78c65$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.332444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No37c57.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c57.07$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.843,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes42c56.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.781,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ae4…bd41backed No57c55.21$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.473345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes40c53.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd271…37e0backed Yes34c50.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.431029.7%92 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes34c50.8$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.444945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No26c49.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7857232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes38c47.82$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.651,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x767c…5441backed Yes40c46.91$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.118143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No65c46.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.981,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No68c45.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9757038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No62c45.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.962,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x579a…9908backed No59c44$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9612154.5%66 W · 55 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes36c43.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.776119.7%12 W · 49 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes34c41.34$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.4826434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes40c40.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9935432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.41,27534%433 W · 842 L+46.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No57c39.29$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.398240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes36c36.37$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2828119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No59c32.86$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3834057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No70c32.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes69c32.6$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0618530.3%56 W · 129 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes63c32.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8861659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed No76c31.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1719648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No78c31.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4441460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1b1…369abacked No55c30.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99b7…177fbacked No65c29.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64035%14 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafaf…572dbacked No59c29.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.323946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3506…ad95backed No63c29.23$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.294355.8%24 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x13e1…0805backed No62c28.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.894856.3%27 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes42c28.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.5119848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2093…758cbacked Yes41c25.21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.86742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes64c24.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.731,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe39e…23a5backed Yes69c24.43$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.663917.9%7 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes53c24.4$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.452339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd3…013fbacked Yes65c22.2$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.772277.3%17 W · 5 L+5.9wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+92.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xc744…955cbacked Yes75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55971.2%42 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x750d…70f0backed Yes80c19.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.922759.3%16 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12cc…275dbacked Yes76c17.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.275463%34 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No66c17.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.475,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fec…be3dbacked No61c17.2$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.499056.7%51 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes74c16.9$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.3913081.5%106 W · 24 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick72cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes80c15.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.1430046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad5a…e224backed Yes65c15.39$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.39850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.