Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75af91eeb40efb3dc9c3672364a2bba588adbcb2ad9aae05ba5ea10d4594bc85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 0c | 17,982$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,380$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 342.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 31c | 272.65$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 232.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649e…fd6abacked Yes | 41c | 189.66$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 29c | 170.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 162.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc861…f0fabacked Yes | 35c | 148.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 45c | 141.39$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 106.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 102.75$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 40c | 97.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 96.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 68c | 86.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…e08ebacked Yes | 31c | 85.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 62c | 81.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 32c | 78.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 64c | 67.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 66.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 35c | 66.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 74c | 65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 58c | 63.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked No | 65c | 62.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0a…ccdcbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 29c | 58.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 33c | 57.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 40c | 57.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 26c | 53.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 35c | 53.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec4d…087ebacked Yes | 37c | 50.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 29c | 49.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 65c | 48.01$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 45.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6688…fdcebacked No | 68c | 43.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 24c | 42.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 39c | 41.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 31c | 39.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 38.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 77c | 38.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…f717backed No | 64c | 37.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 65c | 34.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 71c | 34.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…9544backed Yes | 40c | 33.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c3…ed3ebacked Yes | 42c | 31.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 30.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 74c | 29.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 29.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 76c | 25.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…5136backed Yes | 42c | 24.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 72c | 24.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 63c | 22.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 68c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 71c | 21.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 67c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 62c | 19.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed No | 55c | 19.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked No | 66c | 18.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 73c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 76c | 15.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked No | 68c | 14.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 70c | 14.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.