Movies · resolved market
Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78f8ecf5bbcb4edda2579044519dfccc00605e7c60072e4da6a63dd33b50546e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 4c | 10,214$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.73 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d9…870ebacked Yes | 4c | 8,536$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed Yes | 3c | 3,760$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 22c | 2,464$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.6 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,162$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,067$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.24 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70a7…b884backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,997$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 11c | 1,719$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.29 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…4ac0backed No | 79c | 1,535$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.57 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,208$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 814.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 3c | 799.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e2…bb87backed Yes | 7c | 724$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa301…b4efbacked Yes | 2c | 684.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 2c | 652.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 605.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 603.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 15c | 564.41$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.39 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 500$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 12c | 479.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 11c | 456.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 399.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…1936backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 18c | 258.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 18c | 217.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 152.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 10c | 151.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes | 19c | 150.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8443…94b3backed Yes | 21c | 139$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 18c | 115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 90$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 21c | 67.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…f0c1backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc1…ea4fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9889…4839backed Yes | 41c | 48.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 37c | 40.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed No | 59c | 39.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 64c | 31.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea3…0760backed No | 79c | 21.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?this page
- Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 14m?No won
- Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 11m?Yes won
- Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 14m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.