Movies · resolved market
Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 14m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa79ee12abc4da2493210bff6ff3a134b81e7b53d37fb9e39913f5f9b09c60dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $131,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43c5…4d00backed Yes | 1c | 12,984$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…47ccbacked Yes | 39c | 10,580$4,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,130.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 35c | 8,591$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,019.66 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 71c | 8,378$5,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,427.78 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 37c | 7,224$2,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,662.13 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ef…be38backed Yes | 30c | 4,323$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.12 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 43c | 4,046$1,742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.38 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 17c | 3,646$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.14 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc167…026ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,605$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed Yes | 32c | 3,513$1,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.41 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 73c | 3,450$2,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.27 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…0ac2backed No | 35c | 2,924$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,910.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5684…7874backed Yes | 24c | 2,887$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.05 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6758…d25ebacked Yes | 20c | 2,543$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,499$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 46c | 2,262$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.46 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…c1c9backed Yes | 11c | 2,249$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.09 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…bb46backed Yes | 31c | 1,952$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.47 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 22c | 1,908$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,488.24 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 22c | 1,722$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.93 | 118 | 25.4%30 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb8…69edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,705$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 26c | 1,659$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.05 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12b0…e6d7backed Yes | 10c | 1,608$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,578$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.36 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 59c | 1,506$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.55 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 15c | 1,400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.14 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 73c | 1,324$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.09 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…3d61backed Yes | 23c | 1,281$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed Yes | 14c | 1,258$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.51 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…910abacked Yes | 1c | 1,089$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc8…0a04backed Yes | 19c | 1,009$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e6…d610backed Yes | 19c | 971.07$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da6…d380backed Yes | 32c | 962.76$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2eb…83b2backed Yes | 12c | 959.71$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.14 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -88.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 940$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.2 | 53 | 11.3%6 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 32c | 906.57$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.04 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc639…c5a2backed Yes | 19c | 882$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed No | 76c | 846.35$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.91 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 18c | 827.68$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817e…3cbfbacked Yes | 19c | 800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb247…6a1fbacked Yes | 24c | 777.35$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 33c | 764$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 718$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 17c | 717.11$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 25c | 696.42$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.99 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 13c | 606.36$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 30c | 602.28$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.22 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 44c | 593.56$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.57 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 16c | 584.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 25c | 571.39$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.27 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 23c | 550$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 23c | 537.9$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…a901backed Yes | 18c | 500.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…ee92backed Yes | 26c | 500$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9906…c0aebacked Yes | 35c | 459$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.61 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 16c | 456.55$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.28 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…5284backed Yes | 28c | 428.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed Yes | 19c | 418.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.83 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8689…9ac9backed Yes | 13c | 378.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62b…844abacked Yes | 27c | 374.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 367.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 362.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 20c | 320.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…cd66backed Yes | 47c | 301.58$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 25c | 300.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 48cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a01…6397backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 299.93$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 34c | 295$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 283.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 7c | 275.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 90 | 1.1%1 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 22c | 274.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 29c | 269.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 34c | 239.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.55 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb237…4344backed Yes | 17c | 230.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 230$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed Yes | 15c | 223.95$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 218.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 116 | 4.3%5 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 211.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…0814backed Yes | 44c | 209.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 40c | 208.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 74 | 6.8%5 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 8c | 187$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 172.19$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088c…c851backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…9f4bbacked Yes | 37c | 162.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…7717backed Yes | 25c | 161.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed Yes | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 10c | 160$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 25c | 151.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 77c | 135.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7a…da74backed Yes | 15c | 134.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…f084backed Yes | 17c | 134.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19e…b2edbacked Yes | 17c | 133.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 45c | 125.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 78c | 121.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 20c | 120.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 170 | 10%17 W · 153 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 14m?this page
- Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 11m?Yes won
- Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 14m?No won
- Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.