TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$148,053
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$150,759

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,053 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 196 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ba9…a9f2backed No29c90,242$26,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,117425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-67.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7705…a627backed Yes71c51,000$36,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,7901643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes71c17,470$12,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,062.4240254.7%220 W · 182 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed No29c9,300$2,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,69720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed Yes71c9,259$6,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,685.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x71f6…d12fbacked Yes74c7,445$5,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.633240.6%13 W · 19 L-7.5wins-0.23per pick64cpaid-37.3%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes74c5,338$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,387.8439561.3%242 W · 153 L-21.3wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37e0…024ebacked No26c4,722$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,227.6318950.3%95 W · 94 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d8d…bfcfbacked No27c3,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf2…41b7backed Yes73c3,251$2,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.851225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a0…f57dbacked Yes74c3,107$2,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.241030%3 W · 7 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed No28c2,501$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.2868026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No27c1,920$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.4640046%184 W · 216 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94cf…3db3backed Yes73c1,758$1,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed No27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540640.9%166 W · 240 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ec…f8b2backed Yes72c1,500$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31cf…8834backed No26c1,500$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3909037.8%34 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed Yes71c1,500$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43515337.3%57 W · 96 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb046…a7dcbacked Yes72c1,500$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4201560%9 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cd…3cf2backed No27c1,128$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.938362.7%52 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7418…59e2backed No27c1,038$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.135453.7%29 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes71c1,001$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.3629643.6%129 W · 167 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed No28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2802157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No28c999.95$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.998750.6%44 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed No26c825.9$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4729751.9%154 W · 143 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b0…69c8backed No29c799.99$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2322035%7 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Yes71c799.97$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.9938649%189 W · 197 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9542…4295backed Yes72c749.98$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.991752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2752…8ce3backed Yes73c694.66$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.562853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid+13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed Yes72c599.99$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16890751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x188b…6003backed No29c550.33$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.142556%14 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf848…03abbacked No27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215d…7840backed Yes73c479.45$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+97.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes73c414.95$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.044839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No26c399.99$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1047240.3%29 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes71c355.75$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7518740.6%76 W · 111 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked No6c333.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2042240.3%170 W · 252 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa19a…2f33backed Yes71c320.02$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.651723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-62.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x025e…20ddbacked Yes73c315.07$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x620e…0775backed Yes74c300$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ca8…1a39backed Yes73c279.21$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.393154.8%17 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6ca…09a4backed Yes73c277$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.792142.9%9 W · 12 L-4.9wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-37.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5ad1…b2f4backed Yes74c258.82$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.29933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes73c250$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6842755%235 W · 192 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bad…74a7backed No27c249.96$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.493751.4%19 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb894…0ffcbacked Yes74c227.86$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.24862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No28c222$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.1617143.3%74 W · 97 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98f6…79d2backed Yes74c208.39$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.186435.9%23 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes73c206.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.469348.4%45 W · 48 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd31…4f6dbacked Yes73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed No10c171.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9537841.8%158 W · 220 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd57a…8313backed Yes75c162.04$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.51366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7615…025ebacked Yes74c153.66$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b6…26e9backed Yes74c153.09$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb49e…118fbacked Yes74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-33%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1266…cd8cbacked No27c150$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7514450.7%73 W · 71 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2599…61cdbacked Yes72c149.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+36.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3149…ee7dbacked Yes74c145.08$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba8…0db7backed No26c142.31$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3750%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed Yes73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.995644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c88…6871backed Yes74c135.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.771656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cc0…9b77backed Yes74c135.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7b4d…c898backed Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d1…160fbacked Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb783…c20cbacked Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+75.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9ad…f186backed Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.141361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ef…75f2backed Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.14666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7801…422bbacked Yes74c135.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.142035%7 W · 13 L-4.2wins-0.21per pick56cpaid-43.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed Yes74c135$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.120447.1%96 W · 108 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc637…30b9backed Yes74c117.6$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8248…103abacked Yes72c104.17$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.17837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11d2…4fd1backed No27c101.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.35250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabd7…c531backed No27c100.01$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2740135.2%141 W · 260 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12d8…7359backed No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfc5…817ebacked Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc689…9279backed No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-45.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb04c…b6ccbacked Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f95…3012backed No26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c7b…a592backed Yes73c99.99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf839…6154backed Yes74c99.3$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.822100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5485…4378backed Yes72c98.61$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc39…80d9backed No29c98.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a4…f801backed Yes72c91.6$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x047a…e210backed Yes74c81$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.061637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x63a4…7d9fbacked Yes74c80.81$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51b1…bce2backed Yes73c80$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.618232.4%59 W · 123 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x66e7…e316backed Yes74c79.61$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.74938.8%19 W · 30 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe34…cf4cbacked No27c79.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.377968.4%54 W · 25 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+24.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f05…7191backed Yes74c78.34$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x994d…be63backed Yes73c78.08$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd792…4eb1backed No28c78.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad3c…5b6ebacked Yes75c77.91$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02cb…ae38backed Yes73c77.12$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5515554.8%85 W · 70 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf15e…4a50backed Yes73c76.53$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3621…4f82backed Yes74c72.97$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.973138.7%12 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaf30…8c02backed No28c71.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.07560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aab…c911backed Yes73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.493330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9645…82efbacked Yes73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x872e…5ef3backed No28c68.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.