Premier League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb440407d63ee39eba0721c3e7fc5294dd62e2ac34e61763fb39598a19e884c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 11c | 4,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba7…2629backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…15e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,685$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 12c | 1,100$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd8…eb7bbacked Yes | 10c | 999.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef8…eff3backed Yes | 10c | 999.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…b978backed Yes | 4c | 600$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 10c | 499.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49a…b364backed Yes | 11c | 462$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…43cebacked Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe135…7f76backed Yes | 11c | 227.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 9c | 224.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 10c | 222$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 171 | 43.3%74 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0f…86e7backed Yes | 11c | 186.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578a…ef44backed Yes | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked Yes | 11c | 174.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…141ebacked Yes | 12c | 170.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a54…953abacked Yes | 12c | 158.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…04f6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…d647backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa940…59bebacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035d…3b77backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3912…c081backed Yes | 11c | 107.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dc…9908backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb90e…5794backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee3…20ddbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…08a5backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8248…103abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-04?this page
- Will Manchester City vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.