Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88c96ce1e6916bd5b0e7059e62b2dc8f07d86070bd440597c13a41b6b586fb1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,394
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,269
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,394 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 7c | 1,275$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 14c | 756.39$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 50c | 526.19$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.41 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 62c | 412.25$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.15 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 402.3$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 47c | 325.53$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.16 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked No | 75c | 289.53$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.76 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 52c | 237.94$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.11 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8a…9fb8backed No | 51c | 232$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 68c | 227$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 69c | 199.91$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.63 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 8c | 164.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 152.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 63c | 137.88$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 17c | 131.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 49c | 131.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 121.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 29c | 106.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…913ebacked Yes | 28c | 106.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 50c | 101$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.94 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 47c | 100.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 49c | 97.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9eb…3d11backed Yes | 52c | 93.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 54c | 89.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 86.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 85.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…92e0backed No | 52c | 83.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 74c | 80.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 63c | 79.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.06 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 65c | 77.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 65c | 76.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 54c | 73.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 73c | 72.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…2cdcbacked No | 71c | 69.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 44c | 68.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 64c | 67.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 67.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Yes | 45c | 66.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 47c | 65.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c85backed No | 34c | 63.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…b156backed Yes | 48c | 62.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 56c | 58.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 57c | 56.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 54c | 55.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 46c | 55.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 50c | 54.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 37c | 54.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 61c | 53.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9468…b7dabacked No | 22c | 52.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 57c | 51.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked Yes | 76c | 50.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…9594backed Yes | 57c | 49.63$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…2eeebacked Yes | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 65c | 47.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 69c | 45.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…f525backed No | 59c | 43.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.41per pick | 56cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0e05…0f40backed Yes | 49c | 41.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 51c | 41.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 44c | 40.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 49c | 38.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 37.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 35c | 37.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 71c | 35.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 52c | 35.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 29c | 35.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 56c | 35.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9e44backed No | 52c | 35.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -66%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 59c | 33.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…a3e7backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.6wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 28.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 42c | 27.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0be…1b20backed Yes | 38c | 26.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d6…e222backed No | 69c | 25.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 70c | 24.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 69c | 24.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 49c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9726…1b0dbacked No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…15c9backed Yes | 60c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 57c | 20.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…10babacked No | 64c | 20.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…b013backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5286…fe66backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5524…6592backed Yes | 65c | 19.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed Yes | 66c | 19.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 71°F or below on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.