TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,069
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,730

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,069 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes25c898.59$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.594,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed No75c452.76$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.6232157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed Yes23c399.99$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$929929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x45c9…a3d1backed No77c335.09$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.2627560%165 W · 110 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes23c326.53$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5854043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes25c269.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8777428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96b…7f20backed Yes27c269.65$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.593030%9 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50ec…5dcdbacked Yes32c215.92$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.091225%3 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes28c204.83$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.025431.5%17 W · 37 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-43.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xba3a…e041backed Yes24c199.14$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.249927.3%27 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c168.32$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes18c149.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3119…a6d9backed Yes29c145.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.29887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+25.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes28c143.22$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.711,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…b013backed No79c126.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+63.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes19c122.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No72c117.31$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.258349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9eb…3d11backed No75c111.57$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.022646.2%12 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c0…5443backed No77c110$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.518740.6%76 W · 111 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes24c106.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.871,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3043525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd65a…6599backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5947.4%7 W · 87 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-26.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x129c…0085backed Yes30c99.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed No70c98.59$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.9219259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes22c92.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.168,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes22c89.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2184124%202 W · 639 L-35.9wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa530…88f6backed Yes26c88.91$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.128531.8%27 W · 58 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No70c84.48$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.991,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes24c80.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1685330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No71c78.35$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.642,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04c…c640backed Yes26c76.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9923349.8%116 W · 117 L-15.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c76.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No75c73.83$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7931170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe0eb…a7d8backed No76c65.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.535874.1%43 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes27c63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0115334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No76c62.36$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.919617.9%35 W · 161 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…2b4abacked Yes27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.914915.4%23 W · 126 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb20e…58cebacked No73c55.13$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.132286.4%19 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick72cpaid+19.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No69c52$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8731868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No69c50.34$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.432,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7396…b89cbacked No72c49.09$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.7510780.4%86 W · 21 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes22c48.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.761,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xda7b…3c9fbacked No69c48.83$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9312567.2%84 W · 41 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes30c48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5622934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…ca53backed No80c42.78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.564963.3%31 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e05…0f40backed Yes29c41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.89650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1236…78bebacked No73c40.72$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.997330.1%22 W · 51 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes32c40.04$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fde…b480backed Yes26c39.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe03a…439fbacked Yes26c39.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3918910.6%20 W · 169 L-87.5wins-0.46per pick57cpaid-84%equal weight5-0.41 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No76c38.38$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.219277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xade1…9040backed Yes28c37.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.633839.9%135 W · 203 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc498…8ba5backed Yes32c37.5$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1242438.9%165 W · 259 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c37.03$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1852571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8208…a737backed No72c33.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4822675.7%171 W · 55 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No77c32.47$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.471,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No67c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.443,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a5c…1d38backed No79c31.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.82576%19 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No72c31.78$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.847442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77df…8869backed Yes33c31.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No73c30.67$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.151,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x148f…2f09backed Yes34c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.27140.8%29 W · 42 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6de1…5301backed No68c29.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.416985.5%59 W · 10 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick71cpaid+31.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6e3e…522abacked No68c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2810237.3%38 W · 64 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed No75c27.54$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7528648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd41f…bb32backed No77c26.11$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.113275%24 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No73c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.848672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ea…b265backed No73c24.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6121142.7%90 W · 121 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88e2…d474backed No68c24.32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.816639.2%65 W · 101 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55f5…3767backed No78c23.73$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.212161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5339…4f99backed No69c21.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.863775.7%28 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd85…7a3dbacked No65c20.24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.11,05051.2%538 W · 512 L-99.4wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-15.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2527771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d51…10babacked No70c19.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.931442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No71c19.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5762555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fa…0b7dbacked No68c17.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.5640777.1%314 W · 93 L+28.1wins+0.07per pick70cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe76d…337abacked No70c17.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.262475%18 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No72c15.3$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No73c15.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.147375.3%55 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6572…3968backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.54571.1%32 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5944…a957backed No77c13.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.053976.9%30 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.