Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x942de672060d56d11fd96740dbc5cfa63278775ce75d579baf1603d6fcc9d204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4343…3be2backed No | 17c | 10,178$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 79c | 7,754$6,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.07 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 15c | 5,600$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.43 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 17c | 1,249$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.56 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 8c | 1,091$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 8c | 911.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 11c | 900$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 80c | 863.36$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 14c | 774.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 17c | 657.17$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.67 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 79c | 649$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 72c | 600$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 583.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 521.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 92 | 4.3%4 W · 88 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3c…7cd3backed No | 3c | 481.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 72c | 390.4$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…8eb7backed No | 5c | 370.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…a764backed No | 19c | 349.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +539.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 5c | 293.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…ca77backed No | 4c | 283$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed Yes | 72c | 266.51$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.62 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed No | 6c | 235.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…af6fbacked No | 14c | 230$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 14c | 210$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8c…992dbacked No | 17c | 175.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 17c | 169.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…2f7cbacked No | 13c | 164.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 150$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…71b4backed Yes | 63c | 146.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 9c | 142.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 13c | 121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 12c | 103.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 273 | 38.1%104 W · 169 L | -19.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…7079backed No | 16c | 99.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 63c | 97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 14c | 94.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fc…33e2backed No | 22c | 92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 89.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 65c | 85.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb2…c640backed No | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 26c | 78.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 30c | 78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 14c | 77.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…2969backed No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…46c2backed Yes | 65c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 17c | 64.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd3…1fa0backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of January?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of January?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $120 end of January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.