Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x065284867987dfacc77a2600a544353e8ca0c2a3af715e1b0c46e4a4c7e69637
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c23…5eabbacked Yes | 7c | 2,602$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 15c | 790.46$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.09 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 14c | 776.03$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.48 | 602 | 29.9%180 W · 422 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1086…7b3cbacked Yes | 12c | 504.93$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…73e6backed Yes | 13c | 498.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c4…f0a4backed Yes | 22c | 446.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 388.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed Yes | 17c | 375.44$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 347$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Yes | 13c | 243$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 225.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 19c | 208.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | -7.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…ab38backed Yes | 20c | 205$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…00f0backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617a…b4f1backed Yes | 8c | 188.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b63…bf34backed Yes | 17c | 116.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked Yes | 11c | 113.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 99 | 13.1%13 W · 86 L | -11.3wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…a660backed Yes | 24c | 78.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 76.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…217cbacked No | 76c | 30.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…d20ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 43c | 29.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of January?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $120 end of January?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $80 end of January?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.