TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$421,851
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$329,854

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $421,851 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes4c17,915$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.932259.8%22 W · 203 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-79.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes8c13,354$1,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.41,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes5c10,820$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.2766222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c10,083$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5679711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c7,551$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0251410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes14c6,461$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.4217723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017717.5%31 W · 146 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes26c4,704$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,203.146521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes26c4,401$1,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,161.0531621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c4,317$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.251,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes13c4,311$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.3154122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes20c4,176$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$835.0911725.6%30 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes8c3,719$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.6622023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes9c3,612$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.8424815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fb6…008fbacked Yes2c3,576$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.532142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes16c3,562$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.3157222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes7c3,436$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.75875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes22c3,371$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.0521614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe83a…e270backed Yes5c3,333$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes13c3,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40036411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes2c3,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6962412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes21c2,983$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.3922610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x577c…c836backed Yes24c2,909$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$706.941225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9102…89d6backed No78c2,885$2,261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.32580%4 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+3.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes5c2,586$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.0614332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf0a…08e8backed No79c2,475$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.871662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes4c2,363$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.4632613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes28c2,251$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.555040%20 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+66.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe653…cb18backed Yes25c2,203$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.442729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-52.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes10c2,178$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.1163414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes19c2,145$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.8517126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes29c2,117$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.0953222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked No78c1,965$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.1228025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes12c1,931$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.0220129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes4c1,931$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3225012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes5c1,909$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5615925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes25c1,909$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.9757420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes24c1,875$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.6510629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes17c1,846$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.1810015%15 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes24c1,747$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.4910322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes4c1,738$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.474714.9%7 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d74…a191backed Yes9c1,600$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.25038%19 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+47.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked Yes10c1,532$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2915844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes3c1,500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f73…b6f9backed Yes26c1,490$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.373844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes22c1,469$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.2238.7%2 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-78.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes30c1,469$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.6287618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96f9…0c3bbacked Yes24c1,464$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.412227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes21c1,402$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.3848819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes12c1,377$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.1431722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No69c1,332$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.563021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes28c1,200$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33914025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No73c1,157$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.5931565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…f520backed Yes9c1,103$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.541513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-58.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes26c1,101$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.3187917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ce3…4c0abacked Yes3c1,016$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3db2…0f2ebacked No75c999.98$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2507631.6%24 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Yes4c999.27$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.183327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ff…13eabacked Yes4c960$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.221421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-22.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b1…3f19backed No80c941.79$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b2a…5aa6backed Yes10c928.33$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.982540%10 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4982…fe01backed Yes31c911.04$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.1911529.6%34 W · 81 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes35c885.64$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.73036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes14c811.1$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.23511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x960b…9303backed Yes6c768.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.096021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes31c761.79$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5546137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes6c760.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.771216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10c8…9ddabacked Yes22c756.34$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.161030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes25c728.81$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0710125.7%26 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes4c716.46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9421827.1%59 W · 159 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No67c706.55$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.855743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes7c699.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes8c695.7$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2227417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes33c691.97$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.7426411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes14c670$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1315136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes32c654.13$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.3223819.3%46 W · 192 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9209…b4d5backed Yes26c641.08$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.989036.7%33 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes25c638$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.351,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…5be3backed Yes27c630.37$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.525740.4%23 W · 34 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes23c620.87$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.811512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes18c613.16$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3438614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf096…28a8backed Yes22c608.52$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8710530.5%32 W · 73 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes5c593$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.919731%61 W · 136 L+13.8wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes19c590.47$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5221215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes24c573.7$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.624920.4%10 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes17c568.54$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.654126.8%11 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes23c545.68$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.4243126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c6d…8804backed Yes16c515.25$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.44812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-65.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes35c502.34$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.7210829.6%32 W · 76 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed9…bbd3backed Yes6c500.1$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.54537.8%17 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+35.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed No72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14011729.1%34 W · 83 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45a0…5963backed Yes38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1907028.6%20 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb9…0754backed Yes16c499.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809636.5%35 W · 61 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes19c498.7$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5416420.7%34 W · 130 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked Yes7c495.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.337525.3%19 W · 56 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+35.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes13c495.57$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3919124.6%47 W · 144 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes24c489.3$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2946521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9330…673dbacked Yes9c488.87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.46812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.