Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2db10d724c04b877d7ca974c9ee109e36d3188cd61829826d6e7a33f76891a4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 8,920$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.99 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 5,792$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 3c | 1,866$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 4c | 1,640$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.65 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,354$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 3c | 1,299$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 1,226$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…dc28backed Yes | 5c | 971.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2f…7122backed Yes | 3c | 951.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 4c | 917.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 5c | 892.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…0ed2backed Yes | 4c | 885.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…8b84backed Yes | 2c | 799.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…984bbacked Yes | 3c | 690.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…85fdbacked Yes | 3c | 661.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 3c | 656.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 93 | 15.1%14 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 3c | 646.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 3c | 635.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 4c | 594.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa5…e581backed Yes | 4c | 524.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 3c | 506.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…e6a7backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 3c | 496.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 473.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…6856backed Yes | 6c | 442.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe2…58babacked Yes | 4c | 431.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…9a07backed Yes | 4c | 422.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70be…044dbacked Yes | 3c | 412.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…fa8fbacked Yes | 3c | 404.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 3c | 360.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec07…ca80backed Yes | 3c | 355.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 4c | 338$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 105 | 14.3%15 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 3c | 337.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 4c | 280.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 4c | 271.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked Yes | 6c | 265.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…3837backed Yes | 5c | 218.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.