TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$325,219
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$264,940

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,219 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes8c14,658$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.7856329.8%168 W · 395 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes6c12,793$727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.081,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes5c10,661$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.4463414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes0c9,753$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.871,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes9c5,530$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.1663021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes9c5,097$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.4387618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes7c4,921$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.4156817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes9c4,765$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.1731621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes5c4,474$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.5854122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes10c4,448$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42687917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes8c4,290$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.9624815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes12c4,010$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.3848819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes2c3,993$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7627820.9%58 W · 220 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid+9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes1c3,474$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5931722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked Yes9c3,131$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.624639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes10c3,048$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.8911512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes10c2,656$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.0657420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes16c2,529$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.6421614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c2,181$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4535024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes8c2,123$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2230317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes13c2,119$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.8651845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes3c2,105$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6917723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes4c2,099$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3510216.7%17 W · 85 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick10cpaid-25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes9c2,052$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7234425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes9c2,000$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18216427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes12c1,795$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.2878111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a03…d5cebacked Yes2c1,735$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.621729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes4c1,659$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.841,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes32c1,649$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.6653222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes5c1,642$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4450319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes5c1,574$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.68688.8%6 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+52.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes8c1,570$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.622116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes17c1,477$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7828526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc41f…2a81backed Yes4c1,439$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.592516%4 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes9c1,434$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0112416.9%21 W · 103 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes3c1,432$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.962412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes12c1,407$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5425944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes17c1,340$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.6726619.5%52 W · 214 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes9c1,306$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.791,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes3c1,300$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2329227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes9c1,274$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.281656.7%11 W · 154 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes7c1,250$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.51515.3%8 W · 143 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+227.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes8c1,176$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.776420.3%13 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes2c1,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0511424.6%28 W · 86 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes3c1,032$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1817728.2%50 W · 127 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3223…f2e2backed Yes2c1,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked Yes2c988.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2407.5%3 W · 37 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes3c977.13$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0679711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2f…7122backed Yes27c969.84$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.27425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Yes12c946.35$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.164526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked No78c931.86$731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.1213844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66d8…8258backed Yes4c899.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.95541.8%23 W · 32 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+68.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes10c875.55$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6916831.5%53 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df4…6f5dbacked Yes8c862.14$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes13c851.01$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.698337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c773.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.441,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ef…e1edbacked Yes5c744.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.773520%7 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes8c744.49$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3319726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes20c688.59$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.0112332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6617…984bbacked Yes9c604.22$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9790%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2c2…3cb6backed Yes2c596.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.341421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed Yes25c596$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1493933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ce6…89e4backed Yes6c581.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes9c576.7$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5716023.1%37 W · 123 L+11.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10c8…9ddabacked No75c575.25$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.811030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes3c571.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.412166%13 W · 203 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes28c551.64$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.851,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes8c539.95$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4310125.7%26 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x989a…befcbacked Yes3c507$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes2c499.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.310422.1%23 W · 81 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc366…73cebacked Yes4c490.33$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.07258%2 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb74b…93d8backed Yes6c487.76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes3c467.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.784616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f9e…8ba0backed Yes5c449.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.411414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-62.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes11c428.55$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.619317.2%16 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes11c411.24$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4546521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019925.1%50 W · 149 L+0.8wins0.00per pick25cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes9c399.91$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5433231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92bc…06bfbacked No69c398.93$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.712157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe889…585ebacked No80c396.29$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.631478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes8c392.4$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0334215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes36c386.06$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.463938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325a…a2f4backed Yes7c379.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes26c377.9$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1819722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes27c370.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1218321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes16c361.68$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.391288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcf1…1695backed Yes9c352.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.65822.4%13 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-25.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6a…1300backed Yes28c331.43$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-48.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes9c329.8$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.999627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes13c323.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0738614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…8edcbacked Yes9c307.21$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes31c300.32$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.111721.4%25 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes18c300.11$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2923831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes12c298.75$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3623019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes7c287.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.510015%15 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes27c285.87$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0721034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes35c270.08$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4634833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3311…d659backed Yes28c267.62$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.22728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes9c262.74$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.995016%8 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e97…4828backed Yes17c236.29$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.356627.3%18 W · 48 L+0.3wins0.00per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.