Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd622cee97a8408ace0b527bd5d7e4e8bfb937e1779e04a4ac81e1b31efbd1f33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 8c | 14,658$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,129.78 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 6c | 12,793$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.08 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 5c | 10,661$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.44 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 0c | 9,753$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 9c | 5,530$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.16 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 9c | 5,097$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.43 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 7c | 4,921$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.41 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 9c | 4,765$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.17 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 5c | 4,474$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.58 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 10c | 4,448$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 8c | 4,290$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.96 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 12c | 4,010$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.38 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 2c | 3,993$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 1c | 3,474$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.59 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…e2afbacked Yes | 9c | 3,131$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.62 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 10c | 3,048$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.89 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 10c | 2,656$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.06 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 16c | 2,529$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.64 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 2,181$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 8c | 2,123$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.22 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 2,119$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.86 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 3c | 2,105$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 4c | 2,099$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 102 | 16.7%17 W · 85 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 9c | 2,052$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.72 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 12c | 1,795$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.28 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…d5cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,735$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 4c | 1,659$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.84 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 32c | 1,649$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.66 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 1,642$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,574$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 68 | 8.8%6 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,570$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.62 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,477$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.78 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…2a81backed Yes | 4c | 1,439$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,434$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 124 | 16.9%21 W · 103 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,432$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 12c | 1,407$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.54 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 17c | 1,340$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.67 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 9c | 1,306$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes | 9c | 1,274$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.28 | 165 | 6.7%11 W · 154 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7e…0332backed Yes | 7c | 1,250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 151 | 5.3%8 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +227.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb57…6a21backed Yes | 8c | 1,176$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa471…8b84backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 3c | 1,032$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3223…f2e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 2c | 988.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 3c | 977.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2f…7122backed Yes | 27c | 969.84$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 12c | 946.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.16 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked No | 78c | 931.86$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.12 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d8…8258backed Yes | 4c | 899.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…4230backed Yes | 10c | 875.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…6f5dbacked Yes | 8c | 862.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 13c | 851.01$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.69 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 773.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ef…e1edbacked Yes | 5c | 744.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…7f66backed Yes | 8c | 744.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 197 | 26.9%53 W · 144 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 20c | 688.59$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.01 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6617…984bbacked Yes | 9c | 604.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.97 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…3cb6backed Yes | 2c | 596.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed Yes | 25c | 596$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce6…89e4backed Yes | 6c | 581.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 9c | 576.7$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…9ddabacked No | 75c | 575.25$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 3c | 571.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 216 | 6%13 W · 203 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 28c | 551.64$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.85 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 8c | 539.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…befcbacked Yes | 3c | 507$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 2c | 499.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 104 | 22.1%23 W · 81 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked Yes | 4c | 490.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb74b…93d8backed Yes | 6c | 487.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 467.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9e…8ba0backed Yes | 5c | 449.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 11c | 428.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 11c | 411.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 25.1%50 W · 149 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 9c | 399.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…06bfbacked No | 69c | 398.93$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…585ebacked No | 80c | 396.29$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.63 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 8c | 392.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…1b38backed Yes | 36c | 386.06$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a2f4backed Yes | 7c | 379.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 26c | 377.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 27c | 370.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 16c | 361.68$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.39 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf1…1695backed Yes | 9c | 352.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…1300backed Yes | 28c | 331.43$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 9c | 329.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 13c | 323.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…8edcbacked Yes | 9c | 307.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 31c | 300.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x729e…e23ebacked Yes | 18c | 300.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 238 | 31.1%74 W · 164 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 12c | 298.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 7c | 287.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 100 | 15%15 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 27c | 285.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 35c | 270.08$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 28c | 267.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…8c3cbacked Yes | 9c | 262.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 17c | 236.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 66 | 27.3%18 W · 48 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.