Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7dd4e7b0ac13e290442c4300360621d9a94814f4e388a6dd5bccb9ef350a8cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $331,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $249,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3fb6…008fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 14,438$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 14,265$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.6 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcded…b1ecbacked Yes | 0c | 9,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 6,551$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 6,274$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 6c | 4,807$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.2 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 7c | 4,778$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.65 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 4c | 4,610$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.32 | 216 | 14.8%32 W · 184 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes | 1c | 3,908$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 1c | 3,272$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 9c | 2,989$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.98 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 1c | 2,985$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,615$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.16 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,520$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,109$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,978$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd84b…0df3backed Yes | 15c | 1,774$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.24 | 117 | 25.6%30 W · 87 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,731$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,682$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,638$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.93 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…5f2cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,544$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…9ad6backed Yes | 10c | 1,493$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.73 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 4c | 1,487$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 9c | 1,486$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.78 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 1,483$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,437$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.63 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,383$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.7 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,355$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,349$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,294$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes | 6c | 1,240$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…0ed2backed Yes | 5c | 1,154$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 8c | 1,133$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 1,081$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…775abacked Yes | 1c | 977.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 386 | 14.2%55 W · 331 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8c…dbefbacked Yes | 2c | 956.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…c878backed Yes | 2c | 955.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes | 7c | 912.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 1c | 900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 885.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…f520backed Yes | 5c | 854.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 828.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes | 3c | 795.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 2c | 792.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 95 | 33.7%32 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 9c | 791.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.81 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 768.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 100 | 15%15 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…e3f8backed Yes | 6c | 756.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 8c | 723.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc99e…3853backed Yes | 2c | 698.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 197 | 22.8%45 W · 152 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 2c | 682.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 9c | 656.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.76 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc194…c49cbacked Yes | 11c | 650.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 4c | 608.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 558 | 8.2%46 W · 512 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…71afbacked Yes | 6c | 561.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 128 | 8.6%11 W · 117 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035f…33ebbacked Yes | 3c | 527.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 13c | 526.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes | 11c | 449.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 183 | 21.9%40 W · 143 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…06edbacked Yes | 10c | 399.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x960b…9303backed Yes | 12c | 379.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes | 3c | 347.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 431 | 26.2%113 W · 318 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 5c | 339.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0f…f988backed Yes | 5c | 338.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 9c | 296.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 10c | 285.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 164 | 20.7%34 W · 130 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc366…73cebacked Yes | 14c | 266.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 7c | 259.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 7c | 235.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 109 | 17.4%19 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 11c | 229.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 11c | 193.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…185cbacked Yes | 9c | 185.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…ca63backed Yes | 6c | 182.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…85fdbacked Yes | 16c | 178.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 9c | 163.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…be55backed Yes | 12c | 153.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…ce73backed Yes | 16c | 152.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…81adbacked Yes | 17c | 151.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 7c | 146.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…dd2abacked Yes | 10c | 134.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…7010backed Yes | 12c | 108.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6b…0420backed Yes | 14c | 106.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 101 | 29.7%30 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc8…4676backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.