TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$331,644
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,348

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,644 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3fb6…008fbacked Yes0c23,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405529.1%16 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c14,438$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.532401.7%4 W · 236 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+675.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c14,265$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.61,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcded…b1ecbacked Yes0c9,500$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes0c6,551$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6624617.5%43 W · 203 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c6,274$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.081,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes6c4,807$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.231621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes7c4,778$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.6511512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes4c4,610$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.3221614.8%32 W · 184 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes0c4,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1821220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes1c3,908$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.467122.5%16 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes1c3,272$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.07875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes1c3,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2736411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes9c2,989$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.9822610.6%24 W · 202 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes1c2,985$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1922227%60 W · 162 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes4c2,615$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1663021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes2c2,520$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.310322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes2c2,109$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.114920.4%10 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2262412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c1,978$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.371,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes1c1,900$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.742719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes15c1,774$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.2411725.6%30 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a26…a03bbacked Yes1c1,731$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.834714.9%7 W · 40 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes1c1,682$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2216716.2%27 W · 140 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes17c1,638$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.932714.8%4 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224b…5f2cbacked Yes6c1,544$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9271…9ad6backed Yes10c1,493$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.732240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes4c1,487$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8126411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes9c1,486$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.785628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes3c1,483$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.333511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid+21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes6c1,437$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.638219.5%16 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes7c1,383$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.72116.6%14 W · 197 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-23.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes2c1,355$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4628016.4%46 W · 234 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes4c1,349$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5212114%17 W · 104 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes1c1,294$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.086097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeae1…65ecbacked Yes6c1,240$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.889317.2%16 W · 77 L-0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes1c1,200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9114025.7%36 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d47…0ed2backed Yes5c1,154$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.884214.3%6 W · 36 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes8c1,133$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3478111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes4c1,081$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.11,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes1c977.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7238614.2%55 W · 331 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc8c…dbefbacked Yes2c956.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.125626.8%15 W · 41 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83a3…c878backed Yes2c955.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.496719.4%13 W · 54 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes7c912.83$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.38528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes1c900$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.815925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c885.81$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.271,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa45c…f520backed Yes5c854.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.281513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-58.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c828.87$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.972,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68e…3ebabacked Yes3c795.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.459627.1%26 W · 70 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-18.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes2c792.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.79533.7%32 W · 63 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes9c791.97$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8134425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes6c768.28$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4110015%15 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3248…e3f8backed Yes6c756.19$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.31723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes8c723.6$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.417631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes2c698.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9719722.8%45 W · 152 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes2c682.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.721308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes9c656.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.761,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes11c650.53$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.39837.2%6 W · 77 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes4c608.55$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.465588.2%46 W · 512 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a43…71afbacked Yes6c561.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.121288.6%11 W · 117 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x035f…33ebbacked Yes3c527.81$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.16407.5%3 W · 37 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes13c526.2$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2346521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes7c499.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3532110%32 W · 289 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed Yes11c449.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3518321.9%40 W · 143 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2749…06edbacked Yes10c399.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407432.4%24 W · 50 L-0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x960b…9303backed Yes12c379.48$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.66021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes3c347.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8243126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes5c339.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.567215.3%11 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe0f…f988backed Yes5c338.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.114040%16 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes9c296.49$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1650319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes10c285.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5316420.7%34 W · 130 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc366…73cebacked Yes14c266.77$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.55258%2 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed Yes7c259.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.142123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick12cpaid+39.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes7c235.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2610917.4%19 W · 90 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes11c229.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3687618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes11c193.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2110840.7%44 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3cc…185cbacked Yes9c185.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.176624.2%16 W · 50 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+46.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb556…ca63backed Yes6c182.89$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.577830.8%24 W · 54 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14a1…85fdbacked Yes16c178.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.331233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x409c…9ac8backed Yes9c163.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1812124%29 W · 92 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+35.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3db2…be55backed Yes12c153.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.245822.4%13 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddd…ce73backed Yes16c152.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.168831.8%28 W · 60 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a9…81adbacked Yes17c151.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b73…174ebacked Yes7c146.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-76.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…dd2abacked Yes10c134.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.657129.6%21 W · 50 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e0c…7010backed Yes12c108.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d6b…0420backed Yes14c106.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1310129.7%30 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc8…4676backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.36532.3%21 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.