Movies · resolved market
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebd29f93fbf1388873d8a34dc98592b1ca880f9aecb5118e80341cd7fa8838c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 68c | 16,057$10,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,157.77 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 4c | 6,896$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.52 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0e…8c24backed No | 1c | 5,744$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 23c | 5,593$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.86 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 15c | 4,171$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.24 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 3,446$2,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.98 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed No | 1c | 2,716$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 73c | 2,666$1,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.27 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 22c | 2,661$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.96 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed No | 44c | 2,279$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 65c | 2,045$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.4 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 19c | 1,913$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.61 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 67c | 1,747$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.68 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed No | 33c | 1,688$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.45 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…b8c3backed No | 40c | 1,660$664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 44c | 1,516$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.6 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,410$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…c214backed No | 16c | 1,320$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked No | 3c | 1,294$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 14c | 1,200$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.77 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fab…f47bbacked No | 45c | 997.28$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.78 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 65c | 889.01$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.51 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked No | 50c | 863.75$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.28 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 56c | 863.12$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.9 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 37c | 835.01$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 38c | 820.11$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.97 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 46c | 819.45$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.73 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 70c | 600$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 569.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.72 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 32c | 511.59$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 30c | 484.92$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.79 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked No | 25c | 478$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.22 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 45c | 437.37$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.45 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 34c | 432.75$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.67 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x874e…ab32backed No | 40c | 421.81$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 60c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.4 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…3da3backed Yes | 73c | 390.14$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 50c | 380$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168c…53b0backed No | 40c | 379.63$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked No | 36c | 369.34$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 43c | 364.11$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.17 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 13c | 356.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b9…da59backed No | 40c | 341.67$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7196…dde2backed No | 8c | 331.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 66c | 320.29$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.27 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 27c | 313.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…414fbacked No | 40c | 300$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 299.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 33c | 284.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 41c | 273.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.85 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316b…5d97backed No | 40c | 270.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 61c | 262.32$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.17 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 39c | 250$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked No | 56c | 241.8$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.09 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed Yes | 57c | 225.65$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef86…5afcbacked No | 41c | 212$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 42c | 208$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.31 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…629fbacked Yes | 60c | 202.85$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…bbecbacked Yes | 57c | 200$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 123 | 1.6%2 W · 121 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.1 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked No | 26c | 190$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 181.55$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 65c | 180.01$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 64c | 169.22$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 64c | 160.84$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 36c | 157.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.11 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 30c | 151.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.28 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked No | 42c | 149$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 67c | 148.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9434…d8d8backed Yes | 60c | 147.59$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6888…4c79backed No | 38c | 139$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed No | 19c | 123.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 39c | 110.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked No | 38c | 109.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…dc0cbacked No | 21c | 109.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 26c | 102.35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…5ff5backed No | 65c | 101.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319b…f04ebacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 41c | 95.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes | 60c | 93.98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 40c | 90.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555a…931abacked Yes | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…7f40backed No | 38c | 87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed No | 39c | 83.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 65c | 80$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed No | 68c | 78.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbced…5808backed No | 38c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?this page
- Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?No won
- Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?No won
- Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?No won
- Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.