Movies · resolved market
Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x788e947df66879d94cd44b33d4aef5e0406b5f57192f3e42219263e1ac4e5e41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,824
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,824 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 22c | 5,197$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.28 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.99 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,191$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 13c | 1,972$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.22 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 14c | 1,269$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,122$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.83 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 3c | 1,030$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,001$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.45 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Yes | 32c | 978.58$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 33c | 954.21$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.64 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 67c | 835.74$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.58 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 18c | 728.16$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.38 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 705.21$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.75 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 28c | 690.78$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.61 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 606$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 31c | 531.93$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…c214backed Yes | 32c | 499.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 71c | 492.29$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 12c | 449.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 15c | 355$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 74c | 335.71$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.53 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 26c | 327$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.61 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 320.29$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.58 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 38c | 306.55$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.35 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb533…629fbacked Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 20c | 290$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 68c | 281.86$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 14c | 233.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 36c | 225.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.81 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 218.12$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 189.99$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 13c | 186.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 31c | 183.24$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 175.66$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 23c | 171.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 32c | 145$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 139.03$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…dc0cbacked No | 64c | 131.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…8a5abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 17c | 95.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 70c | 95.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b7…cdb7backed Yes | 34c | 92.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked Yes | 34c | 91.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 36c | 90.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed Yes | 34c | 90.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x159e…050ebacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 36c | 83.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…e4f2backed Yes | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b6…90d3backed Yes | 26c | 65.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…7e36backed No | 65c | 55.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 23c | 52.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked Yes | 34c | 52.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed Yes | 26c | 51.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a41…2c3ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…e395backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed70…04cebacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490d…d807backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d6…1cc8backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac59…8ee2backed Yes | 24c | 49.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 108 | 14.8%16 W · 92 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed Yes | 34c | 35.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…4461backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…b747backed Yes | 34c | 29.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 15m?this page
- Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?No won
- Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?No won
- Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 15m?Yes won
- Will "Obsession" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.