Middle East · resolved market
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb40f6e098f6835ac09aca81187fcc48c4d38db052815d0c6d0969b998ceaabcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4c3…0172backed Yes | 1c | 1,570$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,195$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,178$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.69 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 16c | 1,022$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.25 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…d190backed No | 75c | 670$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked No | 75c | 670$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd44…1837backed Yes | 25c | 666$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0241…162abacked Yes | 25c | 662$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22a…ac22backed Yes | 25c | 642$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…14ddbacked Yes | 8c | 638.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…8cc1backed No | 75c | 630$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 70c | 626$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.8 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 30c | 626$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 60c | 621.85$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.85 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…d680backed Yes | 35c | 619.72$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 18c | 580.65$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.56 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 13c | 578.62$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 26c | 573$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked No | 74c | 573$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 32c | 531$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.92 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…1ccbbacked No | 68c | 531$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 70c | 485$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 72c | 425$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 424$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 358.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 61c | 354.61$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.06 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 8c | 352.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 30c | 331.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…b27ebacked Yes | 41c | 271.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…99c0backed No | 76c | 263.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…78b5backed Yes | 34c | 256$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed No | 66c | 249.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 73c | 235.83$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 28c | 226$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes | 28c | 215.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 211.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 19c | 207.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9840backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 28c | 199$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…0a87backed Yes | 13c | 195.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 30c | 180$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7948…a8a2backed Yes | 36c | 179.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…7848backed Yes | 12c | 167.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 162.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 30c | 162.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 30c | 162$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 68c | 148.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 30c | 147.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 59c | 144.3$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed Yes | 30c | 143$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb0…5a3abacked No | 72c | 140.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafcb…feadbacked Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 9c | 132.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 119 | 9.2%11 W · 108 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 26c | 128.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 44c | 113.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked Yes | 31c | 112$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 18c | 111.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…8ad9backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68bf…459fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +174.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…6eadbacked Yes | 38c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…317abacked Yes | 20c | 99.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 20c | 97.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 80.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 79.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…49bdbacked Yes | 38c | 77.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -46%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…0a63backed Yes | 17c | 67.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 104 | 28.8%30 W · 74 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd8…8e08backed Yes | 37c | 61.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2947…4cf4backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bde…688fbacked No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 54c | 56.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed Yes | 39c | 42.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x599a…c33fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 73c | 38.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 42c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93be…417ebacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 79c | 17.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?this page
- Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.