Middle East · resolved market
Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3b7d07b1904ad3f58105925130d5e49ce08a2d6f77b07857172ae763e50e563
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 2,034$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.41 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 7c | 1,722$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 24c | 921.63$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.97 | 206 | 17%35 W · 171 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c95…d680backed Yes | 23c | 812.36$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…9840backed Yes | 6c | 666.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 5c | 659.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 6c | 639.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 11c | 548$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 11c | 532$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 16c | 504.42$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 19c | 452.52$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 49cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34db…0a87backed Yes | 5c | 410.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 6c | 381.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 18c | 340.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad32…013cbacked Yes | 33c | 298.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes | 6c | 292.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 12c | 257.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 256.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 216.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 16c | 208.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192e…f866backed Yes | 5c | 208.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 19c | 189$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 33c | 184$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 75c | 183$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 292 | 54.8%160 W · 132 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4873…b9c2backed Yes | 6c | 177$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafcb…feadbacked No | 68c | 162$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 67c | 149.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ec…62aabacked Yes | 20c | 138$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc47c…bd10backed Yes | 26c | 114.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes | 19c | 105.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…8ad9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 97.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 67c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 32c | 81.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 267 | 56.2%150 W · 117 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 17c | 77.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 74.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 34c | 73.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…7ee8backed No | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1313backed Yes | 31c | 64.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0924backed No | 78c | 63.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed No | 76c | 58.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +12.6wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…17a6backed No | 70c | 56.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed No | 80c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 62c | 49.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 76c | 46.27$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a8…0c57backed No | 80c | 46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +182.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256e…1867backed No | 79c | 44.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 73c | 43.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed No | 73c | 42.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 80c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…af5abacked Yes | 33c | 35.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe925…7c4fbacked No | 67c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 70c | 27.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 70c | 26.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 75c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…4345backed No | 80c | 15.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 79c | 13.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 76c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 15, 2026?this page
- Will Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia occur by April 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.