TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2c0e…7ee8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
138
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 54 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT6162.3%38 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$244.8
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$155
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$29.37
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+36%+$25.2
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$61.57
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$57.65
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23.9
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$33.03
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+61.7%+$95.64
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$21.08
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$11.28
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+44.3%+$22.13
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+115.3%+$138.36
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$30.05
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+66.5%+$43.26
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+64.6%+$16.16
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+124%+$37.2
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$25.26
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$48.95
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$24.81
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+110.9%+$55.45
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
France vs. England: France O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
France vs. England: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Switzerland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Germany leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+236.9%+$37.91
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Belgium leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+16.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$13.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.