Middle East · resolved market
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7aa6ecf3de5537b7822a0d6041b713ecc4d8b5c9f58449e16509c8af43db86ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $205,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 39c | 22,440$8,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,756.66 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed Yes | 43c | 3,832$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.7 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…396bbacked Yes | 12c | 3,672$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.55 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 67c | 3,579$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.88 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 33c | 3,483$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,325.82 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked No | 32c | 3,280$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,230.42 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…384ebacked Yes | 27c | 3,167$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…dbb9backed No | 46c | 2,951$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.57 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed No | 35c | 2,873$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.99 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 24c | 2,866$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.73 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe6…2440backed Yes | 76c | 2,634$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 5c | 2,516$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 2,498$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,972.06 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…6e7bbacked Yes | 76c | 2,425$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 33c | 2,204$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.32 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 58c | 2,103$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.3 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 45c | 2,019$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.21 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked No | 31c | 1,875$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 28c | 1,838$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,326.44 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…7336backed Yes | 21c | 1,451$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 21c | 1,309$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.98 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes | 44c | 1,296$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.07 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 34c | 1,229$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.89 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 63c | 1,222$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775.86 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 14c | 1,202$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.94 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…cd38backed No | 35c | 1,194$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.69 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd71…d70dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,179$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.45 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 31c | 1,151$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.43 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 52c | 1,134$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.4 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,105$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.84 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…3435backed No | 37c | 1,094$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.93 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 45c | 999.91$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.5 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 23c | 971.05$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.34 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 21c | 946.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 76c | 935.04$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.75 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…4c5abacked Yes | 68c | 932.85$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 41c | 904.37$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.93 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 46c | 896.44$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.23 | 258 | 43.4%112 W · 146 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 59c | 842.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.55 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked No | 16c | 768.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.35 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…5d2dbacked No | 13c | 764.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 30cpaid | +293.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 68c | 750$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 21c | 731.84$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.35 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…5bf9backed No | 65c | 682.54$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.37 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…ceb2backed No | 30c | 677.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.31 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 27c | 673.57$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.82 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 660.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed No | 7c | 593.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.79 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 587.7$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.76 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 48c | 578.79$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.54 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 54c | 574.41$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.82 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…8eefbacked Yes | 63c | 549.99$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.99 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 62c | 534$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.74 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69c9…3b29backed Yes | 77c | 517.62$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…72bebacked No | 10c | 511.14$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…7f50backed No | 80c | 503.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.01 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 67c | 440.02$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.95 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 7c | 436.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.99 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda64…b94cbacked Yes | 24c | 425.7$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 39c | 410.08$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.08 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 58c | 400.79$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.48 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.5wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 58c | 400$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…03c2backed No | 51c | 391.08$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed No | 39c | 388.28$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.97 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…6320backed No | 63c | 371.69$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.79 | 104 | 17.3%18 W · 86 L | -13.7wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 27c | 364$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 56c | 353.98$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc624…ee24backed Yes | 78c | 350.02$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.36 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 26c | 350$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +16.4wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 51c | 348.3$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 31c | 346.76$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.42 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 33c | 345.17$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.5 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 15c | 331.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No | 44c | 329.04$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.04 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked No | 71c | 325.13$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.13 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc5…da90backed No | 43c | 314.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.99 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…a491backed Yes | 32c | 313.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…41f0backed Yes | 22c | 310.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.32 | 157 | 40.1%63 W · 94 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…f643backed No | 28c | 308.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.66 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.45per pick | 30cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 307.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…4f0fbacked Yes | 6c | 302.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46c9…7636backed No | 14c | 301.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.52 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…8eafbacked No | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf48…d8c6backed Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee1…a4c6backed Yes | 30c | 296.6$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 31c | 290.32$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 9c | 285.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.34 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +16.9wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb85d…781bbacked Yes | 71c | 282.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 58c | 279.79$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.97 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…0b70backed Yes | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…77b6backed No | 45c | 268.12$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.39 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +16.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 36c | 264.12$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.33 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed Yes | 38c | 262.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…e84fbacked No | 44c | 260.76$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed Yes | 46c | 259.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked No | 31c | 259.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.31 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 56c | 258.88$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 57c | 250.99$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.93 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 80c | 250.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 34c | 250$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.