Middle East · resolved market
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fb3d72559f000f6b96fda876a2038a3a6058fee06f4a4e6328cedaba34ff555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 5,760$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.52 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a58…dd44backed Yes | 1c | 3,808$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 42 | 4.8%2 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,544$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,355$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.97 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 9c | 2,336$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.31 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked Yes | 9c | 2,294$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.26 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,913$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,380$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…20c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…b919backed Yes | 22c | 1,212$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.78 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,165$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.67 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x038d…d501backed Yes | 9c | 1,081$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed No | 77c | 1,002$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.04 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 72c | 901$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.04 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 2c | 731.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +9.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 11c | 707.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 80c | 560$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 4c | 404.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 32c | 363.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bb…2a16backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…1d04backed Yes | 12c | 240$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c80…a49dbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b59…7bacbacked Yes | 9c | 188$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 16cpaid | +297.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 175.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…e527backed Yes | 11c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…6be5backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 18c | 64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa433…6341backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked No | 77c | 40.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x396b…1759backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.