Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd666c8eb740964a90685bf02d2a235a0970907fc48434e607011e89f6a092ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $740,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $683,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $740,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf99f…8742backed Yes | 19c | 85,596$16,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,193.38 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 0c | 32,592$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.37 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 3c | 30,709$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.22 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 7c | 23,713$1,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,717.49 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 9c | 21,124$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,826.23 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed Yes | 2c | 13,262$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,000$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 5c | 12,687$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.64 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 8c | 11,888$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.65 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 8c | 9,052$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.35 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…b87fbacked Yes | 12c | 8,889$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes | 9c | 8,211$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +247.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aac…a718backed Yes | 20c | 7,600$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.74 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 7,081$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 11c | 6,413$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.84 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…6510backed Yes | 5c | 6,342$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 13c | 6,267$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.59 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 9c | 5,571$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.9 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a6…554cbacked Yes | 14c | 5,518$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 11c | 5,343$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.28 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d81…06edbacked Yes | 2c | 5,234$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 8c | 5,168$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.21 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 2c | 4,668$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.23 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 4,393$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.19 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.85 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…9055backed Yes | 3c | 3,400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +59%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 3,329$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.41 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,111$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.24 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c55…e852backed Yes | 7c | 2,781$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 80c | 2,703$2,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.82 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7494…680dbacked Yes | 32c | 2,670$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.07 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 7c | 2,389$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 78c | 2,388$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.46 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,339$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ea…6df1backed Yes | 15c | 1,913$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b49…ab21backed Yes | 16c | 1,840$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,665$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.82 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 79c | 1,562$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.58 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 15c | 1,448$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.22 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 9c | 1,387$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.23 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,317$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.27 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,267$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,122$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 79c | 999.99$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.4 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed Yes | 1c | 999.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2944…031abacked Yes | 15c | 999.07$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.86 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 13c | 984.22$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.86 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…234abacked Yes | 5c | 936.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb1…5e96backed No | 77c | 884.55$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc907…ef28backed Yes | 11c | 813.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…7a49backed Yes | 6c | 792.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 73c | 752$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.47 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +10.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 77c | 749.3$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.34 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…f068backed Yes | 3c | 740.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes | 2c | 732.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 74c | 730$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.35 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ef…4703backed Yes | 14c | 702.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 688.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ef…3e53backed Yes | 10c | 678.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 17c | 667.79$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.74 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 5c | 622.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 76c | 619.87$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.91 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc583…2ffbbacked Yes | 5c | 605.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 600.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 557.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…844fbacked Yes | 18c | 530.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47f5…934dbacked Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 500$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d1…0a19backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…d030backed Yes | 20c | 499.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…04e8backed Yes | 21c | 492.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 6c | 480.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16df…1b0bbacked Yes | 4c | 472.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46c8…0f7abacked Yes | 29c | 454.21$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…5350backed Yes | 9c | 409.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 25c | 400.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 13c | 400$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 12c | 399.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50c…7a83backed Yes | 4c | 365.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a87…9b0dbacked Yes | 16c | 344.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…e423backed Yes | 22c | 339.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.21 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 17c | 328.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 16c | 328.47$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38fe…4c18backed Yes | 6c | 320$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed Yes | 9c | 315.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…3c55backed Yes | 18c | 315$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa244…aa56backed Yes | 9c | 304.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 18c | 301.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 174 | 49.4%86 W · 88 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 10c | 301.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…cd69backed Yes | 16c | 291.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 289.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 17c | 281.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 18c | 277.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 11c | 270$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…8ad6backed No | 78c | 268.23$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes | 17c | 261.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…5948backed Yes | 8c | 259.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?this page
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.