TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$740,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$683,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $740,530 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf99f…8742backed Yes19c85,596$16,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,193.383330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes0c32,592$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3728750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes3c30,709$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.227020%14 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes7c23,713$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.498530.6%26 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes9c21,124$1,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,826.2335631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes2c13,262$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007627.6%21 W · 55 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes1c13,000$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16416638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes5c12,687$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.6425339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes8c11,888$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.657542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes8c9,052$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.3519930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a39…b87fbacked Yes12c8,889$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick31cpaid+9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5d…51ffbacked Yes9c8,211$741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7412123.8%5 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+247.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aac…a718backed Yes20c7,600$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.742937.9%11 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+109.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c7,081$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.14190%0 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c14…0869backed Yes11c6,413$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725.845851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x621e…6510backed Yes5c6,342$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+122.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes13c6,267$832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.5928734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes9c5,571$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.915230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x91a6…554cbacked Yes14c5,518$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes11c5,343$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.2850130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d81…06edbacked Yes2c5,234$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes8c5,168$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.216330.2%19 W · 44 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes2c4,668$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.231657.3%12 W · 153 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes4c4,393$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.193717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes2c4,100$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.852742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65fb…9055backed Yes3c3,400$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid+59%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes8c3,329$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.411,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c3,111$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.243103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c55…e852backed Yes7c2,781$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300c…6a92backed No80c2,703$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.8219449.5%96 W · 98 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7494…680dbacked Yes32c2,670$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.07180%0 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x401e…6fc9backed Yes7c2,389$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3819648%94 W · 102 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No78c2,388$1,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.4619119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes21c2,339$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4905315.1%8 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf3ea…6df1backed Yes15c1,913$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b49…ab21backed Yes16c1,840$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes11c1,665$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8251138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No79c1,562$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.5835921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes1c1,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes15c1,448$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.2244224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes9c1,387$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.232036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes12c1,317$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.274531.1%14 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked Yes6c1,267$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.378833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes5c1,122$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.581693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes4c1,070$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.431703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f29…0760backed No79c999.99$793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.49443.6%41 W · 53 L-8.7wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed Yes1c999.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1116231.5%51 W · 111 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+22.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked Yes15c999.07$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.861526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes13c984.22$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8612023.3%28 W · 92 L+10.9wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+3.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb7f5…234abacked Yes5c936.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-42.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb1…5e96backed No77c884.55$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.926100%6 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc907…ef28backed Yes11c813.5$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.151631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d91…7a49backed Yes6c792.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid+2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked No73c752$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.4712951.9%67 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8674…0d1ebacked No77c749.3$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.3412638.1%48 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1796…f068backed Yes3c740.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e0…b09bbacked Yes2c732.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152015%3 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick10cpaid+72.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No74c730$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.355429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-47.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe0ef…4703backed Yes14c702.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c688.07$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9242311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86ef…3e53backed Yes10c678.01$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.072722.2%6 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+119.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8790…60c2backed Yes17c667.79$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.745313.2%7 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-4.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4867…a6f8backed Yes5c622.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.124537.8%17 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No76c619.87$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.9114147.5%67 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc583…2ffbbacked Yes5c605.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c600.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12486.3%3 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+132.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c557.71$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.851995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a2…844fbacked Yes18c530.32$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked Yes13c500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653834.2%13 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes8c500$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4236634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41d1…0a19backed Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x63c6…d030backed Yes20c499.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed Yes21c492.19$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.247935.4%28 W · 51 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes6c480.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16df…1b0bbacked Yes4c472.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46c8…0f7abacked Yes29c454.21$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130185.6%1 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick18cpaid-78.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa680…5350backed Yes9c409.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes25c400.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042329.1%123 W · 300 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-12%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes13c400$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.849023.5%115 W · 375 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes12c399.5$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6336626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe50c…7a83backed Yes4c365.72$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a87…9b0dbacked Yes16c344.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x613c…e423backed Yes22c339.99$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.215930.5%18 W · 41 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes17c328.7$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5521521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes16c328.47$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5613255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38fe…4c18backed Yes6c320$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.223748.6%18 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x042a…b153backed Yes9c315.79$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-80.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeacf…3c55backed Yes18c315$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.963432.4%11 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa244…aa56backed Yes9c304.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.17812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid-77.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes18c301.78$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4117449.4%86 W · 88 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Yes10c301.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.925131.4%16 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bc…cd69backed Yes16c291.65$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.834660.9%28 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c289.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7177636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes17c281.07$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7856336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd91…6262backed Yes18c277.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9914715%22 W · 125 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed Yes11c270$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3910343.7%45 W · 58 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c33…8ad6backed No78c268.23$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.216060%36 W · 24 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8fed…a1f9backed Yes17c261.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.425858.6%34 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3a5…5948backed Yes8c259.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.