Middle East · resolved market
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52bda1b8d68c469eb3176f2052f4da7cacc65a814c51f53294637d124af6afde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $687,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $684,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $687,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 585 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 36c | 21,310$7,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,721.38 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 68c | 19,768$13,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,356.53 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 53c | 16,293$8,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,712.92 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 72c | 14,403$10,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,373.36 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed No | 23c | 12,063$2,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,298.42 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafc0…5087backed No | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,399.99 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +6.2wins | +0.56per pick | 17cpaid | +549%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…8669backed No | 26c | 9,651$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,182.57 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 19c | 8,945$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,256.42 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 26c | 7,975$2,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,879.15 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 47c | 7,698$3,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,606.32 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 26c | 6,824$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,064.17 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 70c | 6,822$4,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067.88 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 44c | 6,697$2,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,954.94 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed No | 59c | 6,654$3,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,724.84 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8982…af89backed No | 79c | 6,325$4,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.46 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -7.4wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xba2e…c312backed No | 38c | 6,052$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,729.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 39c | 5,957$2,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,620.85 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 65c | 5,692$3,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,694.87 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 46c | 4,724$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.77 | 501 | 30.5%153 W · 348 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 42c | 4,632$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,704.9 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 3c | 4,538$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.82 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked No | 27c | 4,234$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,090.93 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 70c | 4,123$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880.3 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,076$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 28c | 3,763$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,698.85 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x466a…c444backed No | 69c | 3,578$2,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.86 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,539$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac87…ae28backed No | 20c | 3,430$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,740.83 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed No | 43c | 3,274$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.05 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 25c | 3,192$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,389.95 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 37c | 3,174$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,995.72 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 46c | 3,000$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,605.35 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5acd…08fabacked No | 40c | 2,946$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.88 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed No | 33c | 2,929$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,974.97 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 15c | 2,826$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,413.61 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 75c | 2,664$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.8 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5060…a780backed Yes | 66c | 2,467$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.99 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…cc30backed No | 11c | 2,443$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.47 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 76c | 2,405$1,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,835.08 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked Yes | 58c | 2,310$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350.79 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 40c | 2,229$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.55 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked No | 25c | 2,216$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2606…aaddbacked No | 33c | 2,204$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,467.99 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 51c | 2,109$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.35 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 22c | 2,072$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,619.59 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 2,067$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.09 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d81…06edbacked Yes | 49c | 2,053$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…72bebacked No | 11c | 2,024$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,794.96 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 35c | 2,003$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed No | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.99 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde7e…396bbacked Yes | 36c | 1,976$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…3435backed No | 33c | 1,894$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,268.46 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,828$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.34 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked No | 30c | 1,800$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.91 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed No | 35c | 1,797$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.91 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 59c | 1,784$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,056.79 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…7bfbbacked Yes | 62c | 1,703$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.95 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.8wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes | 18c | 1,677$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.82 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…b5c9backed No | 29c | 1,653$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165.28 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.29per pick | 33cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…6ee2backed Yes | 73c | 1,635$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.11 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…9e9ebacked No | 18c | 1,620$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.83 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +5.9wins | +0.45per pick | 24cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 22c | 1,603$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,244.74 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…b99abacked No | 39c | 1,524$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.62 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +277.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 14c | 1,520$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.8 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…68c5backed No | 58c | 1,496$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,487$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 50c | 1,485$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.58 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 52c | 1,449$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.39 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…76d7backed Yes | 75c | 1,419$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.76 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 32c | 1,415$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.27 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4377…cd61backed No | 15c | 1,398$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 76c | 1,397$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.06 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc95…0b9cbacked No | 50c | 1,329$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.29 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 1,317$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.67 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked Yes | 18c | 1,303$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.68 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 15c | 1,300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked Yes | 79c | 1,300$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…b87fbacked Yes | 78c | 1,281$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…bb66backed No | 77c | 1,278$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.78 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…5d41backed Yes | 74c | 1,264$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.29 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,260$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.41 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 40c | 1,233$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.14 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 72c | 1,223$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.86 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed No | 50c | 1,190$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.12 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 69c | 1,179$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.76 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…262dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,143$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.2 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…f93ebacked No | 40c | 1,136$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.69 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 16c | 1,116$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.7 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 48c | 1,107$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.88 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 23c | 1,087$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.04 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 54c | 1,083$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.91 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed Yes | 66c | 1,068$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.81 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…31b6backed No | 20c | 1,051$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.64 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 22c | 1,050$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…0c71backed No | 58c | 1,041$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…9402backed No | 16c | 1,039$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.33 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 53c | 1,015$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.94 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?this page
- Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.