TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$297,479
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$316,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $297,479 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Yes23c103,877$23,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,844.323636.1%13 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed No77c50,000$38,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,500250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No78c20,628$16,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,596.081,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes16c12,759$2,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,061.0664043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Yes9c9,999$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.95933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+154.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe87…6fc0backed No78c8,745$6,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,923.823756.8%21 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No77c8,000$6,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8406549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c1…d98bbacked Yes21c7,258$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,524.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes22c6,625$1,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.481,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No77c6,000$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3805843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa1e4…4f8abacked Yes18c5,416$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.53650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+106.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4b…541bbacked No78c5,000$3,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes21c4,879$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.513345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf63a…90e6backed Yes10c4,753$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.9950%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes17c4,510$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.323268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked No79c4,348$3,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913.073141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No77c3,500$2,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8056744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3636…4a00backed Yes19c3,255$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.41250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No77c3,000$2,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6905944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30ce…fdcebacked No77c2,079$1,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.961968.4%13 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.27per pick42cpaid+128.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed No79c2,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4205168.6%35 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No79c1,947$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.2469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No77c1,778$1,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.0829855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333%1 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-69.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes10c1,439$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.975024%12 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes20c1,395$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27938748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes6c1,347$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.845945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed No71c1,322$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.36232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes14c1,242$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.731526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes9c1,050$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.544129.3%12 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2305151%26 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2306549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2306647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2305349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed No47c999.99$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.9912952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes22c964.99$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.312450%12 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec5c…ce46backed Yes14c960.08$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.941752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick36cpaid+18.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e65…0b57backed Yes7c936.92$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No77c900$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2075745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35d6…679abacked Yes14c886.81$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.33333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick9cpaid+220.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No78c819.97$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.7928755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No77c800$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1845743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No77c800$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1846446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No77c800$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1845745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb553…457bbacked Yes15c764.42$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.981136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+56.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xef20…c46abacked Yes50c754.71$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.712245.5%10 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebb5…ec99backed Yes19c740.25$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.791145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Yes18c686.69$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.63339.4%13 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99f4…6e5dbacked Yes29c648.69$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.12666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5db…f982backed Yes17c608.41$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.433158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Yes12c599.97$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+63.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes25c574.36$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.284153.7%22 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1c8…0cecbacked Yes17c570.12$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.92540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked No80c566.84$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.3733945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Yes11c555.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.21812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes18c543.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7533938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes10c531.69$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.044837.5%18 W · 30 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+33.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb15…5fefbacked Yes18c528.22$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.082259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x459f…c1f5backed Yes22c517.65$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.883132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1158950.6%45 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1158949.4%44 W · 45 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1157050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked No77c500$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1155646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No78c499.99$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0911956.3%67 W · 52 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes9c498.81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5326433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes29c478.7$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.827646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes29c472.1$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.91425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+98.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked No77c460$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.88851.1%45 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes21c457.2$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0120845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes22c433.27$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.326940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed No67c423.87$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.1613139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d1fabacked Yes12c407.44$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.351637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9678…b4bfbacked Yes7c400$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed5d…2668backed Yes13c364.54$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.393354.5%18 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Yes8c354.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3411943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No72c346.25$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3448141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe8b…517cbacked Yes29c330.14$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Yes29c320.23$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8724132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc21b…e29fbacked Yes17c315.15$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Yes25c306.5$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9214652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6606…a628backed Yes23c304.98$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed No77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a5…d093backed No77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694544.4%20 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes8c295.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.625440.7%22 W · 32 L-7.5wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes52c291.4$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.1219458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d5d…de85backed Yes16c290.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…49eebacked Yes18c264.11$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5419943.2%86 W · 113 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b6b…ec86backed Yes29c260.81$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.63922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid+22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes51c254.76$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9314055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No78c246.69$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.2748658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d50…d283backed Yes20c243.83$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.774339.5%17 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2057…af78backed Yes29c234.86$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.111656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+85%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed No49c227$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.773330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465046%23 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd59…2e2fbacked No77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465650%28 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x15ac…f3babacked Yes51c189.55$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.672552%13 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a62…1cb9backed Yes51c188.41$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f3…999fbacked Yes17c180$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.611539.1%45 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.