TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,726
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,726 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2110…5850backed Yes46c5,381$2,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,456.876048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed No44c4,379$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,454.036237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b74…6407backed Yes44c3,454$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.811643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x608f…14edbacked Yes11c2,333$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes8c2,035$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes17c1,494$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.2619818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,356$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.352560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes5c1,300$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.944157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a4a…efaebacked Yes31c1,251$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2874…4736backed Yes9c1,172$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-72.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4de…c949backed No62c1,056$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed No53c1,030$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.736338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1771…6796backed Yes19c1,000$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.92450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed No39c968.21$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.371258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+52.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00c8…a75fbacked Yes49c815.54$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.32860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.6wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+24.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d91…35b8backed Yes38c784.3$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+79.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d8e…b1c7backed Yes7c751.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6149…8d2cbacked No67c740.91$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed No33c715.19$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.371154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…0411backed No68c702$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.263100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf394…ad79backed Yes18c673.76$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+93.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x45e4…200abacked Yes13c651.51$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf847…ee6abacked Yes65c606.96$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.25540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…e15abacked Yes8c600$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed No52c565.19$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.1650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No79c559.34$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.27943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe876…645bbacked Yes60c539.62$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9f…47c2backed Yes2c519.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes58c519$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.067146.5%33 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No54c492.26$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.429543.2%41 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x124a…3741backed No44c488.73$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.922532%8 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb728…4664backed Yes64c469.18$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c416.01$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.171,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d4…f923backed Yes11c402.66$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a9…fdb6backed Yes38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No65c363.59$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5345738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes7c357$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.142674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked No40c354.46$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2141353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x069e…863cbacked Yes16c332.77$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.18520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-47.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa05d…5e4bbacked Yes6c324.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+61.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe38e…50c8backed Yes15c322.32$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.421258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.23per pick35cpaid+45.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes15c316.6$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.866141%25 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1b…a414backed Yes41c308.22$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.11241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No73c306.32$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.799525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa6f0…f943backed Yes17c287$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No77c282.16$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.525440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb699…4e20backed Yes65c264.7$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.03540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-40.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf27a…7b4dbacked No59c250$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c240$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9872935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes52c238$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.245733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes12c234.8$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.192977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes62c217$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.548433.3%28 W · 56 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2da3…3895backed Yes51c210$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.52714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f7c…34e7backed Yes64c209$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bef…3b06backed No69c202.18$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.081729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c201.08$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.756448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ad8…43e2backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.22245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-23.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb56…c1bcbacked No68c200$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.21450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa821…0bc8backed Yes51c200$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.61040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ced…01aebacked Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No43c192.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.8112533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes7c178.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.19128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-72.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed8…35f0backed Yes8c152$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.311118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-64.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed No52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.85955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes18c137.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2150%0 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No78c137.47$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.698047.5%38 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes30c137.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4922019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a0f…53a2backed Yes22c136.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb3c…8e0bbacked No63c135.97$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.921030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No70c135$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.917143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No60c131.3$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0189317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.91435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ad0…1f59backed No77c116.51$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No52c114.98$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1714423.6%34 W · 110 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No79c109.22$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9132228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26f7…9a17backed Yes54c109$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed Yes18c108.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed7d…5852backed Yes65c107.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes43c106.25$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6230%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb251…caa4backed Yes38c105.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes10c104.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.828933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8533…7c76backed Yes12c103.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.322425%6 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+74.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes34c102.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8415047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-43.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5de7…540cbacked Yes56c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.52259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.411549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f92…d732backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.21361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.778033.8%27 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51f0…3651backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+112.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf26e…cf82backed No52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.21060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4079…7126backed No36c99.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.691250%6 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+134.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7c2…b695backed Yes15c98.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No42c98.09$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.223545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02e9…9a18backed Yes38c90.26$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0875…fb98backed Yes15c87.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ce…3a36backed No36c82.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e52…44e7backed No49c79.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.473100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+52.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No80c79.53$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.115848.3%28 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe308…309cbacked No50c76.49$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.944427.3%12 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-39%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.