TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$133,852
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$118,961

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,852 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x08e7…aa79backed No19c4,758$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No16c4,706$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7304714.9%7 W · 40 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No7c4,573$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.2419818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd59…0231backed No6c3,461$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.341145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+63.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes14c2,962$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,559.17020%14 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed No60c2,544$1,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.677948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No1c2,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3521713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c1,950$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked No6c1,745$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.586726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x714d…c177backed Yes20c1,688$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.07333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes20c1,560$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.074835.4%17 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5e2…bd16backed Yes77c1,420$1,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.25580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe46…0411backed Yes78c1,300$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2863100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes18c1,282$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.929430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No13c1,217$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.218123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x06dc…ba00backed No7c1,200$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.73333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No21c1,199$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.314157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x44da…e225backed Yes70c1,165$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45f7…d67abacked No10c1,005$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed No12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12011425.4%29 W · 85 L+0.4wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fd…3348backed Yes15c1,000$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.37per pick20cpaid+279.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No13c980.09$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.839525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed No11c977.46$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.956237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No8c967.62$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.914827.1%13 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc08…a25cbacked Yes21c957.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.072100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+227.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes34c905.95$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$593.4427536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes47c874.46$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.635733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0153…89d6backed No6c863.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes46c836.68$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.9719432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bd7…96d3backed No52c733.09$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.4650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+348.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No65c715.74$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.9332228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No3c714.88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7513422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No13c701.72$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.27032.9%23 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-41.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked No11c650$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.52218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-61%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed No3c641.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20280%0 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3334…67dbbacked No23c599.99$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes62c598.08$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.3215047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d8e…b1c7backed No24c597.51$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes75c585.9$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.798257.3%47 W · 35 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No36c582.22$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.745440.7%22 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-29.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes58c568.99$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.443056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+20.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No70c559.34$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.437943%34 W · 45 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983d…becfbacked No25c550.58$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-43.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x124a…3741backed Yes79c540$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.62532%8 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8533…7c76backed No11c523.64$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.62425%6 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+74.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed No11c523.57$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.942722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+34.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f6c…bbc7backed No3c519.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb357…a4aebacked Yes77c518.65$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed No28c517.86$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51dc…423bbacked No5c509.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes80c501.22$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.225240.4%21 W · 31 L+6.1wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd029…4fc1backed No79c500$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+128.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x048a…9be4backed Yes78c464.99$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.31154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes19c457.46$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.1836945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed No59c446.43$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.321553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No15c439.86$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.5822019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c418.48$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.221,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No15c417.58$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.322744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed Yes9c400.1$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.091442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+186.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b85…8363backed No11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-84%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No61c400$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.647448.6%36 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1315…a84abacked No28c392.13$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.59366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7272…1a25backed No5c377.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa5…7621backed Yes40c375.34$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.821080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+57.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No8c349.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.45836%5 W · 78 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No13c335.56$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.695162.7%32 W · 19 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed No8c334.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.674339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No12c297.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed94…53fcbacked No5c287.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.49966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+43.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No21c272.73$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.125151%26 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed No11c255.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.444420.5%9 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c5e…8819backed No15c253.33$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+683.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13dd…b2b7backed Yes20c250$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-7.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c11…99a1backed No11c250$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.580%0 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc24f…087fbacked Yes75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No72c246.98$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0272935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1bbb…a5eabacked Yes73c245.13$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c235$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.485843.1%25 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f52…8b7cbacked Yes26c232.94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+288.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No16c230$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.356448.4%31 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dde…bcdebacked No6c222$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes41c220$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.812533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1395…1ff5backed No6c218$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b8d…5dc2backed No6c208$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78c5…f623backed No7c207.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.083525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a66…a177backed No5c205.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb201…b73fbacked No6c203$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No80c200$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1606462.5%40 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e4…8768backed No14c200$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed Yes68c194$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.862437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d77…7004backed No7c188.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes20c187.5$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1503641.7%15 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed24…3b45backed Yes40c187$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa36…7d42backed No13c170.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes75c164.16$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.111549.6%57 W · 58 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-2.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0bef…3b06backed No11c162.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.831729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf19a…d7c0backed No21c151.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick16cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed No32c150$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.45119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick21cpaid-88.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf763…8d83backed Yes16c150$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+126.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.