AI · resolved market
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a3888740166ae5619dd6ad67359c3310a5f32549331bbf2dc1c3f02d1b853ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 43c | 1,800$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.81 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b74…6407backed Yes | 41c | 1,785$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,356$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 1,200$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.4 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed Yes | 4c | 1,098$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe32b…626ebacked No | 50c | 686.2$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -78%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bf…5fb1backed Yes | 3c | 678.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 49c | 641.15$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.09 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 4c | 509.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 36c | 494.89$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.48 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 49c | 444$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.43 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 6c | 427.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 392.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 389$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 335$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.83 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 50c | 312.79$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.73 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a5eabacked No | 60c | 305.72$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 275$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.56 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 237.67$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 24c | 213.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 50c | 195.57$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.54 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 50c | 155$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa678…dd59backed Yes | 52c | 138$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 43c | 137.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a4…3e32backed Yes | 12c | 124.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…824ebacked Yes | 10c | 112.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…bd55backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 99.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked Yes | 52c | 91.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 38c | 85.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…9617backed No | 45c | 80.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 58c | 77.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed No | 48c | 71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 37c | 70.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…c6e3backed No | 44c | 66.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 70c | 57.17$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 68c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…f98bbacked No | 70c | 52.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…510fbacked No | 57c | 52.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f92…d732backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…b082backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf4…ba60backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…b245backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…8d83backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…cf82backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 46c | 49.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 58c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed No | 47c | 42.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 47c | 33.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 80 | 33.8%27 W · 53 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 37c | 31.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 48c | 27.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…4a85backed No | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed No | 45c | 23.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…23c1backed Yes | 57c | 23.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c1…ab9bbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…179abacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cde…dec9backed Yes | 65c | 19.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…ea60backed No | 57c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 61c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?this page
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 14, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 15, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 16, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 21, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 22, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 23, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 24, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 28, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 29, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 6, 2026?No won
- Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 9, 2026?No won
- Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.