TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc036…7fea

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
32
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Movies, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 52 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.70T and $0.80T on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.52
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$20.84
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.7
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.87
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT+146%+$48.98
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.52
Intel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 40%-42%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$38.28
All 9 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $9B?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$30.6
Will Apple (AAPL) Q3 Mac revenue be above $8.5B?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tom Holland appear on Hall H stage at SDCC 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$27.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $10M committed to the RipCars public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Goat" during McGregor vs Holloway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-08-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.