AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf074663f47802d56740299a765d2412980dbc39c0320d3e2799a3bc6f117b813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 13c | 2,176$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,894.05 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 78c | 954.1$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 769.68$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.05 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca12…ea03backed No | 13c | 727.85$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.32 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +140%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…b0e9backed Yes | 57c | 451.64$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 29c | 412.51$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.2 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 5c | 281.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 38c | 194$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.28 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…8794backed Yes | 78c | 179.62$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f71…719abacked No | 30c | 165$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 159.71$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 142.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.64 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90cf…6cc2backed Yes | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 107.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 67c | 102.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 31c | 90$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…6530backed No | 21c | 83.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +206.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked No | 41c | 82.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…4ad4backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x485e…0dffbacked Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f8…f76ebacked Yes | 76c | 78.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 38c | 76.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 73c | 67.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 62.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 25c | 58.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 67c | 50.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…97f7backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbf…78c8backed Yes | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 27c | 40.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 42c | 37.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 62c | 36.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffb3…fc52backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 50c | 32.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26bb…2e8fbacked No | 45c | 25.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3aa…6f51backed Yes | 59c | 21.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…787ebacked Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8a…5d15backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?this page
- Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?No won
- Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.