AI · resolved market
Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70ebfcd948bcf448c3a5f1426a63e0dcccb166a19420407f140f7e03ed36320b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes | 45c | 549.3$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 13c | 222.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 210$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.83 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 77c | 159.69$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 142.55$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb731…a8fabacked Yes | 22c | 89.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…7939backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…6413backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix Game Controller be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?this page
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?No won
- Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on July 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.