Earnings · resolved market
Will Amazon.com (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x778f7b1584c2d2585944ac4020dcb187ac86f4552293ad7dd9bb1c79e458e4fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,781
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 6c | 10,667$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 5c | 7,963$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.89 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 8c | 3,054$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff1…6930backed No | 6c | 2,177$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +178%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 9c | 2,005$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f0…42debacked No | 4c | 2,005$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 3c | 1,362$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 5c | 1,119$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 528.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 8c | 400.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 5c | 296.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…c377backed No | 8c | 243.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 227.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 7c | 227.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…684dbacked No | 15c | 205.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0afa…e66dbacked Yes | 52c | 190$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 8c | 148.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…7feabacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.